Friday, September 2, 2011

The Russian-Israeli mafia has a proper name, assigned by Belgian police: Nebula....

The Russian-Israeli mafia has a proper name, assigned by Belgian police: Nebula....

 http://iamthewitness.com/books/Raphael.Johnson/The.Judeo-Russian.Mafia.pdf


September , 2011 -- Classified Belgian police report on Nebula receives another look...


In the mid-1990s, a report prepared by the Belgian police, which looked into the assassination of former Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and Belgian Socialist Party leader Andre Cools, in a gangland-style murder in 1991, is getting a fresh look after reports have surfaced about Mossad links to neo-Nazi, anti-Muslim gangs, some with criminal underpinnings, that are masquerading as legitimate political movements in Belgium, the Netherlands, and other countries. The renewed interest in the Belgian police report, known as the ATLAS Report, is of special interest following the recent massacre of Norwegian socialist youth on Utoya island and a deadly bombing in downtown Oslo carried out by pro-Zionist, neo-Nazi Anders Behring Breivik.

The ATLAS Report's detailed investigation of Zionist players in global financial scandals dovetails with recent comments by officials of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood that the former corrupt regime of Hosni Mubarak represented a "Talmudic dictatorship" imposed on Egypt by international players. The comments made by the Brotherhood were highlighted in a recent seminar on Islam and democracy held in Jakarta by the Jakarta Foreign Correspondents' Club.

Before Cools's murder, Belgium had been wracked by Italian Gladio-style "strategy of tension" (or, as in Turkey today, Ergenekon) right-wing terrorist attacks, including death squad hits and bombings, which were initially blamed by authorities on leftist guerrilla groups such as the Communist Combatant Cells. Cools's hometown of Liege was the center of the nexus of organized crime syndicates and the right-wing Gladio cells. However, it was not the revelation that Cools and other top Belgian politicians were involved in Belgium's right-wing "deep state" that brought down their house of cards but the infamous Agusta helicopter scandal.

Agusta, the Italian helicopter manufacturer and a licensee of Bell helicopters of the United States, bribed Socialist Party leaders, including Cools and then-NATO Secretary General Willy Claes, a friend of Cools, to cement a Belgian Army contract for 42 helicopters, which would replace the Army's aging French Alouette helicopters. Cools was to have received $10 million in bribes but the cash he received turned out to be counterfeit. Cools, in retaliation, threatened to tell all he knew about the Agusta deal and much more. It was Cools's threat to go public that earned him two bullets while he was sitting in his car next to his girlfriend. One bullet struck Cools in the head, the other to his chest. His girlfriend was also hit but she survived. What Cools threatened to expose was an intricate network of terrorists, nuclear smugglers, drug dealers, diamond and gold smugglers, and weapons merchants who were ultimately tied to Mossad and a shadowy network of influential European Jewish Zionists, a network known as "Nebula." The details on Nebula are contained in the ATLAS report. The ATLAS report is also the main subject of a 400-page book on Belgium's deep state politics to be published in Belgium in the Dutch language in 2012.

The Confidential "Not to be used in court proceedings" ATLAS report was issued by the Special Investigations Unit of the Belgian gendarmerie in
Liege on November 21, 1994. It is clear that the authors of the report realized the problems they faced in pointing to Jewish criminal networks as a major force behind Europe's "strategy of tension" and the financial contrivances established to support acts of terrorism and other illegal acts. The report in its introduction states ". . . some information is still being cross checked. Several files have already been examined by various police services, who have been able to corroborate some data, even if Justice [Ministry] has not always followed-up on them. Day to day events show us that some files never go anywhere and some others will no doubt never lead anywhere, for various reasons [emphasis added].

The report states: "To understand ‘Nebula’, one has to abandon the established path of logic as far as finances and politics are concerned. No longer can there be mention of nation states, of political party colors or of any economic coherence. Our conclusion would be that, over 20 years, some economical forces, some of which are of the mafia-type  linked to the political power and organized crime structures, have reached the 4th level of money laundering, in other words: Absolute Power."

The ATLAS Report also identified who the Belgian police believed was a kingpin of Nebula. It is also noteworthy how Costa Rica is identified as a major nexus for the worldwide network. The information about Russian-Israeli Mafia control of Costa Rica has been verified by recent information obtained by WMR from Costa Rican sources. The ATLAS Report states:

"We have been informed about a person who appears to be one of the mysterious top leaders in several countries, (including ours).

This person is portrayed as being the ‘éminence grise’, the de facto director of most of the big multinational companies whose structures are being used to launder large amounts of capital. This person is: PRZEDBORSKI, Felix, born 12 December 1930, ‘stateless’, husband to Helène KRYGIER, formerly living in TERVUREN.

On the subject of this person, we have been told that:

-He has a double nationality: Belgium + Costa Rica.

We have been able to confirm that he obtained Belgium nationality on 6 September 1978, a few days before his emigration to Costa Rica. His wife, born 5 June 1931, obtained Belgian nationality on 28 December 1950.

-He is Ambassador of Costa Rica to IAEA in Vienna (anti-nuclear commission) and allegedly also holds the position of minister plenipotentiary of this same country at the European Economic Community as well as to France (where has offices on Avenue Wilson, Paris).

-He actually lives in Costa Rica, where he owns the property BELLA VISTA in the San José Country Club, Escazu/San José-Costa Rica.

-He regurly resides in our country, in Tervuren, Lorrainedreef n° ?, where he is the subscriber of telephone number 02/7679584 (Secret)."

One of Przedborski's sons is also identified by Belgian police as a Nebula kingpin and heir apparent to his father: "(2) Named Daniël. Lawyer in Brussels and Geneva. He allegedly wishes to take over the leadership of the ‘Nebula’. His wife is said to be the daughter of a mafia godfather, close to CRAXHI (ex prime-minister of Italy, mentioned in operation MANI PULITE)*. Have found his address: (first names André-Marc, Daniel), born 7 May 1954 in Berchem-St-Agathe, Belgian, Lawyer, husband to BIALETTI, Alessandra, living in Switzerland since 11 December 84-Plateau de Frontanex n. 9C in 1208 Geneva (extremely expensive/up-scale quarter of Geneva). Subject still maintains attorney offices in Brussels, Avenue du Vert Chasseur n. 42 in 1180 Uccle (phone 02/3752408)

-----
Ed. note: *Operation Clean Hands during 1990s targeting corruption by several Italian politicians, including Silvio Berlusconi.
The ATLAS Report identifies the activities of Przedborski: "The structure being headed by Félix PRZEDBORSKI is involved in trafficking various items worldwide:
DIAMONDS, WEAPONS, DRUGS, NUCLEAR MATERIAL, MONEY LAUNDERING, INFLUENCE PEDDLING.

To this end an economical-political structure has been erected in the last 40 years over which he reigns as the Absolute Master.

Although illiterate, he speaks 7 or 8 languages and is gifted with an extraordinary cunning intelligence, which has left him totally without any moral value whatsoever.
It is said that the financial foundation of his Group is estimated at 7 billion USD.
It is often said that to get on top of the hill, one has to surround himself with only the best. This is what Przedborski has practised, ‘buying’ the greatest economists, lawyers, etc. ... pushing his friends into leadership positions in several countries. For the security of his person and that of his group, Felix has called upon the security services of an ex-Mossad Colonel.

4. In order to understand this ‘Nebula’, one has to go back to the end of WWII, when PRZEDBORSKI allegedly was held prisoner in AUSCHWITZ , where he became friends with Belgian co-prisoners, among whom was the father of the late minister André Cools.
[Ed. note: other source says KZ Mauthausen, not Auschwitz.]
Apparently Przedborski was liberated by a Russian general, for whom Przedborski set up some black market trafficking (jeans, Rolex ...) Around 1950 PRZEDBORSKI left Russia, but he always stayed in contact. His Belgian co-prisoners have taken care of things so he could come over to our country. Even at this early stage, PRZEDBORSKI was in contact with:

-CIA (Vienna station, Rome station) (the CIA appears to still be playing a role in this Nebula, in particular in respect of arms smuggle, for which payments were
transferred via GEOFFREY’s Bank).
-The VATICAN
-Italian MAFIA

5. In 1956, PRZEDBORSKI was arrested in Germany for his involvement in the trafficking of nuclear materials with some Chinese. Chancelor Adenauer apparently intervened personally to keep him out of jail. (The file on this subject was filed at the BKA Bundes Kriminal Amt under the codename SPRINGER). It is rather amazing to find that PRZEDBORSKI continued the nuclear deals even when being a member of the IAEA in Vienna in his capacity of Ambassdor of Costa Rica! Have confirmed that PRZEDBORSKI Félix was indeed listed in the IAEA in Vienna as being Ambassador of Costa Rica.

6.Toward the end of the 70s, beginning of the 80s, PRZEDBORSKI allegedly directed a Belgium-based  international arms smuggle, in exchange of which drugs (heroin) were delivered. PRZEDBORSKI was a friend Carlos MONGE (president of Coast Rica-deceded)
who had made him honorary consul of this Central-American nation neighbouring NICARAGUA and PANAMA.

He [Przedborski] initially has set up a heroin smuggle with the help of the Ambassadors of this country, among whom the Ambassador to Luxembourg and Geneva. Same for the Ambassadors in Warsaw and Moscow (apparently arrested with 24 kg of heroin)

-The weapons have been shipped from FN Fabrique Nationale via the airport of Bierset (Liège) being initially aircargoed to NANTES / FRANCE from where they were flown to Costa Rica (to SANTA ELENA, a vast region inside that country).
On the way back, drugs were flown in.

-In this arms trafficking , we were told, following persons were involved:

a. André COOLS, ex-minister, assassinated;
b. Roger BOAS (ESCO company)
c. Abraham SHAVIT- assistant to Roger BOAS-personal friend of Israel minister BEGIN. It is said that André Cools stayed at Shavit’s place whenever he visited Israel.
d. Guy Mathot, ex-minister
e. Paul Vanden Boeynants, ex-premier
f. Fernand Beaurir, general commandant of the gendarmerie.

Apparently Henri SIMONET (at the time has was Foreign Affairs minister and had Alfred CAHEN and Anne-Marie LIZIN working for him) was in the know of this. It is said that some Irangate weapons transited through this network to the Contras in Nicaragua (In this context it appeared that PRZEDBORSKI addressed a US president by his first name).

7. Around 1983, PRZEDBORSKI hired an ex-Mossad colonel to ensure his security
and that of his group.

PRZEDBORSKI had known this colonel, who, still working for Mossad, intervened unofficially to liberate the daughter of the international arms trafficker ‘Raymond NAKACHIAN’ (phonetic spelling). After which the colonel and his team quit the Mossad and started working for Przedborski.

This colonel served as a middleman to set-up shop in Belgium for Ketib-El-Ketib (Lebanese financier) deceased??, to set-up shop for the PLO in Brussels. He also took care of the military training of CONTRAS and CALI Cartel personnel.

8. Around 1985/86, Leon DEFERM (personal friend of Guy Mathot, Edmond Leburton and Michel Daerden etc...) was introduced to PRZEDBORSKI, for whom he started to launder large amounts of money.

(In this context we were told of the involvement of French CGE Compagnie Générale des Eaux and Lyonnaise des Eaux)

It is interesting to note that Przedborski and Deferm shared a mistress by the name of Helena KOHLBRUNER, who was recently arrested in Geneva in possession of (securities / shares / bonds / notes).

-The person who introduced DEFERM was the Brussels lawyer Marc KADANER who was instrumental in the Nebula operations. KADANER allegedly held control over Bernard ANSELME, francophone community minister, who, rumor has it, can often be found drunk at 10 a.m. We were told that another lawyer working for the Nebula was Mr AFSCHRIFT whose services were highly appreciated by the Russians.

9. In 1993 , following the ratification of the GATT, the European Economic Community revised the banana import quota. This revision could have been effective had it not been for the omission of one country from the resolution: Germany, where the transit of bananas remained authorized.

This decision of the CEE was apparently influenced by a conference that Przedborski organized at the occasion of a reception party at his private home in TERVUREN.
Following people attended:
-the president of Colombia,
-the president of Honduras,
-the president of Nicaragua,
-Mr Jacques Delors (president of the EEC commission)
-Mr Frederic Velghe ( director Caisse Privée Bank)
-a certain Le Hoday

All illegal transhipments were routed through the Zeebrugge Northsea terminal, via the Eurocomer company, whose main financier was Caisse Privée Bank.

Info is transmitted to us, we cannot link this with the banana-terminal at Zeebrugge. Rather it is to be stipulated that it was through the terminal of the GHENT port that about $5.000.000 were laundered with the help of Alain De Rouck of Ghent and more specifically through the ELECTRORAIL company. We were told that Jean-Pierre VAN ROSSEM had set-up this laundering structure and that part of the laundered money was transferred to the Cayman Islands via Banque Brussel Lambert.

10. We obtained information on various of PRZEDBORSKI’s money laundering intermediaries.
a. BERCOVITCH (two brothers)

-the first being employed in the diamond business, not involved.
-the second is an art dealer, owner of the BERCO art galleries in ANTWERP, BRUSSELS and KNOKKE.

Their lawyer was Me ROGGEN, daughter of the next character.

b. ROGGEN, Yvan (ex-governor of the Brabant province)

-member of the Grande Loge
-also honorary consul of Costa Rica
-private secretary of PRZEDBORSKI

c. the KRIWIN family (ex bankers)

-of which one daughter Anne is a lawyer at the Brussels bar

d. the SCHEYVEN family (father and son)

-one of the richest families in Belgium;
-(covert?) financiers of the PSC party [Christian Popular Party]
-active member of the CEPIC and financier of the PSC via the AMELINCKX construction company.

[CEPIC was an extreme right wing group centered on PSC minister Paul Vanden Boeynants-linked to Cercle Pinay]

e. Frederic VELGHE (Caisse Privée Bank)

f. Pierre SALIK (a big importer of money for PRZEDBORSKI)

-his daughters were once the fiancées of PRZEDBORSKI’s sons. We do not know why they never married.

-this person obviously is very important within the Nebula, especially in respect of the operations conducted by his son-in-law Michel DWEK (Belgian aged ca. 35)

-works together with Ronald BRUCKNER (see below)

-works together with his nephew Serge BORENSTEIN, who takes care of money transfers via PRAGUE.

g. Serge BORENSTEIN (ca. 45 years of age-nephew of Pierre SALIK)

-residing in Prague, formerly the capital of Czechoslovakia. Initially this was the main route for Przedborski to launder the proceeds of his criminal activity.

-as to this figure, we got info from the Chinese criminal milieu: he served as a middleman for the acquisition of a real estate complex including the restaurants CITY OF THE DRAGON in Brussels (17 mll $) and Liège ( 12 mll $)-(see YANG file)

h. A MIAMI company (Florida/USA): NEW REPUBLIC

This company had an account at the CGER [ASLK, Algemene Spaar-en Lijfrente Kas]
Managed exclusively by PRZEDBORSKI Felix (mentioned supra) and Farouk KHAN (of the KHAN-gang). This account was liquidated in 1990 (when the new law on money laundering took effect) and the funds -2 bn $- were transferred to IRAQ.

i. Another company was mentioned that apparently was one of the most important ones and that was recently acquired by the Russians: COMUELE S.A.

This company, acquired in the early 80s, held ‘stock value’ of about 1.3 M$.
Since then a total of 200 M $ has been transferred in particular by Serge BORENSTEIN in Prague.

The company holds offices in ZAIRE, NETHERLANDS, LUXEMOURG.
In this company the following persons hold a position (cross checked with VAT number 403.340.648-Commerce Register nr Brussels 15.175-Capital 681.441.715 Belgian Francs= ca. 22 M $)

According to our informant:

X-Bruno GOLDBERGER
(According to National Registers born in Czechoslovakia on 20 October 1947, of American nationality, divorced from Susana KASZIRER in 1989-see below-stricken from the ANTWERP population registers on 16 December 1994)
Real estate agent in Brussels

-works for a certain ‘GLOBUS GROUP’ (??? Nationality unknown)
-he mediated the entry of the Russians into COMUELE co
-he was introduced to the Russians by Maurice TEMPELSMAN, widower friend of Jacqueline Kennedy, herself widow of the American president)
-he allegedly met the Russians on the occasion of (his or her) birthday party in Brussels in 1994. One of these Russians was Mike BRANDWAIN (director of the M&S International company of Antwerp, being mentioned in the BLACKSTONE file as well as in a file on the Russian Mafia in New York-US Customs, July 1994)

Another Russian was called ADIC from Antwerp.

-At this dinner, some serious threats were exchanged. The Russians had invested 100 M $ in the COMUELE SA, it was said that the source of the money was Israel.
The reason was (according to our info) that the company capital was increased in 1990 but the Americans refused to participate. It was on this occasion that the Russians were invited in and consequently were swindled out of the 100 M $ they had hoped to launder or to invest.

According to HELP , the cy capital was increased from 9 M $ to 22 M $ in 1992. The previous increase in cy capital was in 1989, lifting it to 3 M $ only.

X-Michel WOLF
-Belgian living in the Liège region
-manager of a.o. the Michel Wolf & Brothers cy
-parking, parking meters etc..

X-Arthur FOGEL
-presently president of the SOGEPA company (Chaussée de Vleurgat n. 243 in 1050 Brussels)
-it has been reported that Bruno GOLDBERGER and Arthur FOGEL were looking for new company associates for COMUELE, candidates being the WOLF brothers and a certain BAUMANN
-on BAUMANN we can testify that he actually lives in PULLY near LAUSANNE in Switzerland, Chemin Chamblande 19, employé of UNIMEDICA cy of Froideville (near Lausanne).
-owns a residence on the beachfront at Saint Jean Cap Ferrat (S France)
-his working permit is actually under scrutiny from the Swiss authorities
-has studied Law and Finances in Antwerp and in the USA
-works for fiduciary companies in France & Switzerland
-appears to have become enormously wealthy, setting up money laundering systems, takes care personally of money transfers for the Russians.

X-Daniel WEECKERS
-Brussels broker
-adress Avenue Fr Roosevelt 94, Brussels
-works for ‘Groupe ‘DEFI’
-has business relations with Max TERET of FNAC and CANAL + (it was apparently through this French television company and through LYONNAISE DES EAUX that large amounts of money have been laundered on behalf of PRZEDBORSKI and/or others among which CREDIT LYONNAIS)
-his name was dropped as a candidate successor to PRZEDBORSKI.

X-Pierre SALIK
-involved personally or via companies whose names start with JA or JU.

X-the Russians
-recently took up some positions in the cy; there is a certain ADIC of Antwerp.
-we’re talking about Russian mafiosi here
-among who the famous Mike Brandwain

X-Shilo MILLER

-is not officially on the cy records
-he represented the Israeli partners (who provided the 100 M $ ???)
-no further info available on this person

j. A particular laundering network within the PRZEDBORSKI group has been brought to our attention: the DIAMOND network of Antwerp.

The basis of PRZEDBORSKI’s wealth appears to have been the diamond trade and smuggle. As early as the 50s, when he arrived in Belgium, PRZEDBORSKI reportedly already enjoyed the friendship of the King of KASAI [rich province of the Belgian Congo] (To this end a structure has been set-up via Antwerp by the aforementioned Maurice TEMPELSMAN, a certain GOLDFINGER and a certain Leo SIMON). This network (see item J.) seems to exist independently and is only used on occasion by PRZEDBORSKI.

Involved in it are the following persons:

X-Sylvain LINKER
-Belgian, notary public at JUMET
-this person is the founder of the front companies used for money laundering
-had some trouble with justice after having orchestrated the theft of his own paintings

X-Richard DAVIDOVITCH

-diamond trader of Antwerp

X-Michel KÖNIG
-diamond trader of Antwerp

X-The TACHE brothers

-diamond traders of Antwerp

X-the GOLDBERG brothers

-diamond traders of Antwerp
-the wife of one of the brothers is a judge in Antwerp

X-the ex-director of Sociéte Nationale d’Aviation Française (UTA)

X-the ex-director of IAL, Israel Air Lines, Ben ARI (father), also on the board of directors of the Liège-Bierset Airport.

X-Charles BORNET, a Brussels lawyer
x-Xavier MAGNEE

-Brussels lawyer, ex- president of the bar

X-the JACKIAN family (father & son)

-both lawyers, the father being an ex-president of the bar

k. we have been informed of the names of the banks involved in the PRZEDBORSKI group for money laundering:

-COLBERT Bank (named after the ex-minister of France)
-GLOBAL Bank of DÜSSELDORF
-DISCOUNT Bank with offices in Luxemburg and Geneva
-NATIONAL REPUBLIC BANK with offices in Luxembourg and New York. It seems that a certain SAFRA is in charge of the special transfers.

We have noticed that this bank is also being used by:

a.Paul Vanden Boeynants, ex-minister, ex-prime minister
b.Roger BOAS, from the ASCO company
c.Abraham SHAVIT
d.The MOSSAD

11. It is reported that within his Group, PRZEDBORSKI is assisted by the following persons

a. Bruno GOLDBERGER (see above)
-ex-husband of Suzanna KASZYRER, daughter of Joseph. We have been informed that in the early 80s Bruno GOLDBERGER has set-up a financial structure that later proved to be used a diamonds laundering operation by his father-in-law. When GOLDBERGER discovered this, he quit. Apparently there must have been a court case involving diamond traders and the ABN-AMRO Bank.

In the course of the proceeding someone must have spilled the beans. This person then ‘jumped’ to his death from the 47th floor a NY building. It is said that the killing was ordered by Joseph KASZYRER.

b. Pierre SALIK

-involved in the COMUELE Co directly or through front companies whose names start with JA or JU.

-is in contact with the Australian billionaire Allan BOND.

(Allan BOND: Australian aged ca. 50, acknowledged billionaire in Australia.

Owner of millions of hectares of property on which drugs culturescare grown.
Associate of Albert FRERE (who helped BOND penetrate the Belgian market;
Owns 4.8% of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert-since he holds >5%, no declaration is required under Belgian law. Has initiated very important company take-overs in the USA.)

c. Ronald BRUCKNER (Belgian ca. 35 years of age)

-works in Germany for the East-European countries, a.o. Russia
-works in direct liaison with Michel DWEK (son-in-law of Pierre SALIK)

d. CALUWE-PUTSEYS ass. lawyers

-a member of the CALUWE family is member of the Loge du Grand Orient.
-this cabinet took charge of the defense of Pierre SALIK and Roland BRUCKNER
Who got ensnared in some smuggling operation with the eastern countries. It is said that they induced a procedural error by having some documents stolen, thus claiming that the defense attorneys had been unable to study the evidence. The theft was arranged when the files were transferred. The investigating judge was Guido BELLEMANS.

e. VANDERELST, Brussels lawyers (father & son)

1.Raymond (father):

-PRZEDBORSKI’s attorney,
-Attorney for the Loge du Grand Orient of Belgium of which he is a member.
-Personal advisor to King Albert II
-Works or has worked for the cabinet of Pierre LAMBERT

2. Michel (son)
-was arrested in the case of the kidnapping of ex-premier Paul Vanden Boeynants, with the HAEMERS-gang

f. Koen BLIJWEERT (Belgian)

-very active in the money laundering business
-son of Renaat BLIJWEERT, directorof  the now bankrupt AMELINCKX construction cy.

g. Jacques MAISON
-Brussels political figure (involved in city finances)
-involved in the affair of the (securities / stocks / bonds / funds/ notes)
-is the point-of-contact for a Luxembourg-based ‘ godfather’
-actually engaged in organizing funds  to the tune of 100-130 M $ for the ‘Eastern Countries’

h. Lionel PERL

-ca 45 years of age
-has been awarded a honorary title ‘Grande Distinction’ by SOLVAY Cy
-works from Antwerp, laundering Russian capital
-worked for several banks, was kicked out of Bank de GROOF after it was discovered that he had installed a laundering mechanism in the bank.

i. Cardinal BELLINI
 -lives in Brussels, Avenue Bellevue 55 or 57
-Vatican representative for real estate matters outside of Italy

Please note that pope Paul II, who is a friend of PRZEDBORSKI’s, after his OPUS DEI sponsored ascent to the pontificate, has appointed cardinal Rossi as the manager of
Vatican real estate in Italie. The right hand of ROSSI was none other than cardinal Marcinkus who himself got entangled in the securities (bonds, stock..) affair linked to the Banco Ambrosiano debacle.

j. Patrick FOCQUET (Belgian)

-ex employee of TUBEMEUSE cy
-held a position in the SOCOFIN cy and Bank NAEGELMAECKERS

k. David PINSENT (American)

-manager of the peanut company PLANTATION TRUST

12. PRZEDBORSKI , Grand Master of the Jewish Loge, very influential in the political world either by friendship or corruption.

His business relations were:

a. André COOLS
-Belgian ex-minister, assassinated;
-PRZEDBORSKI had a special relationship with Cools, given the old friendship with Cools senior.
-they frequently met and got into man-to-man talks in ANTIBES / FRANCE

b. Willy DECLERK
-Belgian ex-minister
-actually member of EEC
-it is said that he is at the orders of PRZEDBORSKI

c. Willy CLAES

-Belgian ex-minister of Foreign Affaird (last position held)
-actually Secretary General of NATO in Brussels

d. Alfred CAHEN

-Belgian Ambassador to FRANCE
-his spouse is Mme Nicole de BEAUVAY, formerly first honorary assistant to Queen Fabiola. She left the royal court when her husband took up his diplomatic position in Paris.
-Master of the Loge
-friend of late King Baudouin
-friend of Willy CLAES
-ex secretary general of Foreign Affairs ministry (headed by Mr SIMONET) where he issued a diplomatic passport to PRZEDBORSKI in 1986.
-at that moment in time, Anne-Marie LIZIN worked with SIMONET as well. LIZIN, given her intimate relationship with SIMONET, had the opportunity to collect evidence about the aforementioned arms deals, which could have resulted in her ‘immunity’. She was also the mistress of André COOLS.

e. François MITTERAND
-president of FRANCE

f. Pierre BEREGOVOY
-French ex-minister
-committed suicide last year

g. Jacques DELORS

-president of the ECC commission
-French ex-minister of finances
-possible candidate for the French presidential elections
-worked for Banque de France [France National Bank]

h. ?? MERLY

-mayor of the city of ANTIBES/ FRANCE

We have been told that nearly all of Cap d’Antibes is the personally owned by PRZEDBORSKI who lives in a stunning property in the street ‘Impasse Félix’, named after him.

Following persons have been reported there:
-André COOLS
-Baron EMPAIN
-Didier PINEAU VALENCIENNES of the SCHNEIDER GROUP, involved in money laundering affair.

13. Presently PRZEDBORSKI group is working on a large scale tourist real estate project (1800 square KM) in Costa Rica (SANTA ELENA), a 2 Bn $ investment.

Involved in this project:

-the chain CONRAD and Romi BARON (formerly of the MONITOR Cy and CENTRE ROGIER in Brussels)
-‘GAONE’ from Geneva
-Leon DEFERM

14.Felix PRZEDBORSKI is reported to be ill, so an internal succession struggle is developing.

Candidates:

a. Daniel PRZEDBORSKI (his son, lawyer in Brussels)

b. Daniel WEECKERS (broker, involved in COMUELE S.A.)

c. Two or three Frenchmen:
Among who Max TERET, friend of Felix PRZEDBORSKI, director of CANAL + (through which money was laundered in cooperation with Lyonnaise des Eaux)

15. We were able to piece together following chronology:

1984: association of A. FOGEL and B. GOLDBERGER on the one hand, and Joseph KASZIRER on the other. They set-up a structure for real estate investment, founding a company for each acquisition, functioning as a recycling machine for cash derived from ‘black’ dealings in diamonds in Antwerp and NY.

The general set-up being taken care of by Charles DILLEY (Brussels lawyer) via a Luxemburg holding cy , funds being transferred via ABN-AMRO Bank and NATIONAL REPUBLIC BANK of NY.

1987: splitting of association, but FOGEL and GOLDBERGER  stick together.

Two events then follow:
1-they meet  BAUM and STEINMETZ.
2-they get in touch with D. WEECKERS and through him with
PRZEDBORSKI Felix (his daughters being engaged to the SALIK sons)
SALIK, Pierre (associate of GOLDBERGER in SOGEPA Cy and others)
BORENSTEIN, Serge (nephew of SALIK)
COOLS André

1988/89. Big merger with COMUELE of which they grab control through Daniel WEECKERS.

1990. Felix PRZEDBORSKI has liquidated his account (the NEW REPUBLIC account) at
CGER (ASLK) so 2 Bn $ are transferred and Serge BORENSTEIN gets the washing machine started in PRAGUE.

The COMUELE Cy is getting into financial trouble, needs capital urgently.
The Americans refuse to participate to increase capital.

GOLDBERGER enters the Russians via Maurice TEMPELSMAN, they accept to invest 100 Mn $. It is stipulated that the capital originates from Israel. FOGEL and GOLDBERGER are aware of that.

The Americans exit the company.

By the end of 1994, COMUELE is unable to pay interests due.
October 1994: the Russians get real angry and threaten several people, they invite GOLDBERGER to UKRAINE for some explanations.

16. The reasons for our transmitting this report before having cross-checked are multiple.

(not relevant)


17. Let’s not forget that this Nebula controls most of the money transfers worldwide and also controls the highest political authorities.

This Nebula could, if so desired, put pressure on most of the important cities worldwide and get control over the almost everything (energy supply, water supply, environment), through corruption. This has been going on for several years.

Let’s not forget that this same Nebula provides the security forces, police and military to several countries, including their equipment (weapons, communications etc..).

Listed as being part of this structure:

GEC General Electric Cy (weapons, water supply, etc..
ALSTHOM
BELL
ALCATEL: communications
SCHNEIDER
CGE COMPANIE GENERALE DES EAUX
LYONNAISE DES EAUX
Etc..


(signed)
HODY, Jean-Marie            DECK, Didier
1 MDL                            1 MDL

Reviewed,

GRAFF, Commandant
Officer Resp BSR.

---------
The assassinations, suicides, and defenestrations associated with Nebula appear linked to another high-profile murder of a West German politician, Uwe Barschel, which was previously reported by WMR on August 26, 2009:


"The neocons, in their normal group think fashion, are now teaming up to launch all-out attacks on Scotland for releasing from prison convicted PanAm 103 bomber Abdelbeset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi. Some neocons are urging a boycott of Scottish products and tourism. Of course, the demonization of Scotland comes as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visits Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London and follows Israeli attacks on Sweden's government over an Aftonbladet report on Israelis trafficking in Palestinian body parts removed from the bodies young Palestinians killed by Israeli troops, Ireland's former President and UN Human Rights Commissioner Mary Robinson for receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Obama, and Norway over a boycott of Israeli products by a Norwegian regional government. The blaming of Libya for the take down of PanAm 103 was concocted by the CIA and Mossad, working in tandem, to cover up their activities related to weapons smuggling with Iran in the 1980s. Had Iran been officially blamed for the December 1988 attack on PanAm 103, retaliation for the USS Vincennes  attack on an Iran Air Airbus-300 in July 1988, the lucrative joint CIA-Mossad weapons smuggling program to and from Iran during the Iran-Iraq war would have become an embarrassment. Therefore, a cover story was created to blame Libya for the bombing and two Libyan agents, Megrahi, who was later convicted, and Al Amin Khalifa Fhimah, who was acquitted based on the same flimsy and dubious evidence used to convict Megrahi, were named as the perpetrators.
The Iranian connection was never revealed by the CIA, which was under orders to cook the intelligence to pin the blame for Lockerbie on Libya.
A declassified Air Intelligence Agency, formerly SECRET NOFORN WNINTEL, dated March 4, 1991, states that Iranian Interior Minister Ayatollah Ali Akbar Mohtashemi ordered the attack on PanAm 103 in retaliation for the Iran Airbus downing by the U.S. Navy. The relevant paragraph in the redacted report states: 'Mohtashemi is closely connected with the Al Abas and Abu Nidal terrorist groups. He is actually a long-time friend of Abu Nidal. He has recently paid 10 million dollars in cash and gold to these two organizations to carry out terrorist activities and was the one who paid the same amount to bomb Pan Am flight 103 in retaliation for the U.S. shootdown of the Iranian Airbus. Mohtashemi has also spent time in Lebanon.'
Two veteran ABC News correspondents, one in Paris and the other in Nicosia, later told this editor that the wire transfer of $10 million from Iran via a Greek bank to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley for the construction of the Pan Am 103 bomb was intercepted by the National Security Agency (NSA) and the British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) Ayios Nikolaos listening station in Cyprus. Both correspondents said the blaming of Libya for the Lockerbie bombing was fantasy from the beginning. It was later revealed that Nidal, who later was given asylum by Saddam Hussein in Baghdad and died there under suspicious circumstances in 2002, had alternately worked for the CIA, Mossad, and Egyptian and Kuwaiti intelligence.
The CIA and Mossad went to extreme lengths to keep their secret arms smuggling network to Iran from exposure. This was during the time of the Iran-contra scandal and the transition from Ronald Reagan to George H. W. Bush. Bush was deeply enmeshed in the Iran-contra scandal and its links to the smuggling of weapons to Ayatollah Khomeini's government in Iran.
In 1987, the up-and-coming Christian Democratic Union Premier of the German state of Schleswig-Holstein, Uwe Barschel, began objecting to the use of Hartenholm airport in his state for the smuggling of weapons to and from Iran. The Iranian-run airport was also used to smuggle nuclear materials and drugs. Barschel was lured to the Hotel Beau-Rivage in Geneva by what WMR was told were CIA and Mossad agents operating under diplomatic cover with the assistance of the Federal German Bundesnacrichtendienst(BND) intelligence service. On October 11, 1987, Barschel was discovered dead and fully-clothed in his hotel room's water-filled bathtub. The drug Lorazepam was found in his blood stream. The autopsy of Barschel indicated force was used against him before his death.
Years ago, the editor was provided with copies of TOP SECRET CIA cables intercepted by East German intelligence in 1987. The cables are between the military attache at the US. Embassy in Bern and the Joint Chiefs' Intelligence and Threat Analysis Center (ITAC) at the Pentagon, with copies to the CIA's Deputy Director of Operations and the Director of the NSA, that suggest that the decision was made to assassinate Barschel, code named "Perch," after two agents, a CIA agent code named "Lokal" and a Mossad agent code-named "Rabbi" met with Barschel in Geneva, code named "Laketown," only to discover the Schleswig-Holstein Premier was "unyielding" to their demands about permitting his state to be used for Iranian arms and drug smuggling. The German word for the fish "perch" is "Barsch."
The second intercepted CIA cable states: "Jerry took Perch to Temple met with Lokal and Rabbi at 2130 Perch unyielding refuses coop Rabbi ordered disposition alternative w asap advise no act." In can be assumed that the CIA was being informed that Mossad was recommending that Barschel be eliminated and the CIA was informing Langley that no action was required on the part of the CIA.
Two days after Barschel's meeting with the CIA and Mossad agents, his body was discovered in the bathtub in Room 317 at the Beau-Rivage.
A little over a year later, Pan Am 103, would be blown up over the skies of Scotland. To protect the Iranian-CIA-Mossad smuggling link, Libya would be framed for the attack. And in an added bonus, a group of CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) personnel who may have been aware of the CIA's connections to the Iran-contra and Israeli weapons smuggling operations with Iran happened to be on board the ill-fated Boeing 747: Matthew Gannon, the CIA's deputy station chief in Beirut; Major Chuck McKee, assigned to the DIA station in Beirut; Ronald Lariviere, a security officer at the U.S. embassy in Beirut; and Daniel O'Connor, a security officer at the U.S. embassy in Nicosia. Assistant Deputy Director Michael S. Bernstein, a special agent for the Office of Special Investigation at the Department of Justice.
Scottish Justice Minister Kenny MacAskill, who is under tremendous political fire for releasing Megrahi to Libya while he lives his last days with prostate cancer, may still have the last triumph. Megrahi is vowing to present new evidence establishing his innocence. Barack Obama, who shows more and more by his actions that he still answers to his old employer, the CIA -- while he worked for the CIA front Business International Corporation and perhaps before and after -- wants Megrahi kept under house arrest in Libya.
There is little wonder why the Israel Lobby and Obama and FBI director Robert Mueller are so incensed over MacAskill's actions. Mueller was assistant to Attorney General Richard Thornburgh in 1989 and prosecuted both Megrahi and Fhimah, as well as long-time CIA operative Manuel Noriega of Panama. Obama and Mueller are clearly trying to cover the tracks of their respective agencies as Megrahi prepares to tell all."
On November 2, 2010, WMR reported on the strong Israeli and Mossad influence over the government of Costa Rica: "On October 28, Nicaragua accused Costa Rica of staging cross border raids by Costa Rican paramilitary police into Nicaraguan territory. Costa Rica has been warning Nicaragua against dredging the San Juan River inside Nicaraguan territory. Costa Rica, which fancies itself as an ecological 'green haven,' claims the dredging of the river is causing environmental damage. But as WMR previously reported, Costa Rica, which is backed by George Soros 'civil society' agents of influence, as well as Israeli intelligence agents, is trying to paint Nicaragua as an aggressive destroyer of the environment.
On November 1, Costa Rica claimed that Nicaraguan troops had taken up position on Calero island in the San Juan River and which is claimed by both countries. Nicaragua claims that its troops are in the area to control drug trafficking from Costa Rica, which WMR previously reported involved Costa Rican police and inteligence personnel. In a statement published by The Washington Post, Nicaraguan Army chief of staff General Julio Aviles confirmed WMR's previous report stating the drug trafficking from Costa Rica is controlled by an ex-patriate Nicaraguan family operating from San Jose, the Costa Rican capital.
WMR has also learned that the paramilitary operatives operating out of Costa Rica, including CIA and Mossad agents, are now looking at extending their destabilization operations into El Salvador, now governed by the leftist Farabundo Marti Liberation Front government of President Mauricio Funes, an ally of Ortega in Nicaragua. The tactic being used by the Chinchilla-Lieberman regime in San Jose is the same as that being used against Nicaragua: flood El Salvador with cocaine to increase drug gang warfare and instability.
Most of the drug smuggling from Costa Rica into Nicaragua and El Salvador is being conducted by Russian-Israeli mafiosi figures operating under diplomatic cover at the Israeli embassy in San Jose. Others officially operate in San Jose as 'Russian Martial Arts' trainers, however, they are actually Israeli Defense Force 'Krav Maga' trainers.
One of the Mossad suspects, now wanted by INTERPOL, in the assassination of a Palestinian official in Dubai was susoected of making death threats and engaging an an attempted kidnapping in Costa Rica but the Costa Rican government declined prosecution. The Israeli suspect's false identity in the Dubai assassination is Kevin Daveron, born 2/2/1972, Ireland Passport 980975, alias Jonathan Lewis Graham (stolen identity from a United Kingdom passport.

Ex-Israeli commandos operating in Costa Rica with the blessing of Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman (not known to be a relation to Costa Rica's pro-Zionist Vice President Luis Lieberman Ginsburg; Avigdor hails from Moldova while Luis is of Polish descent) operate under the cover of the Mossad-linked security firm Bitajon Shar, which has been connected, according to WMR's Central American sources, to the destabilization efforts on the Costa Rican borders with Nicaragua and El Salvador."
In updated information provided to WMR from Costa Rican sources, the Costa Rican charged with the assassination of popular Argentine folk singer Facundo Cabral in Guatemala in July is tied to the Mossad-linked criminal druig smuggling network operating throughout Central America and Mexico. Alejandro Jiménez Gonzalez, charged in the killing of Cabral, is the Costa Rican leader of a Central American money laundering syndicate. The actual target of the assassination may have been Cabral's driver, Nicaraguan Elite nigh clubs owner Henry Farinas, who reportedly received protection from the Nicaraguan government of Daniel Ortega, a prime target of the Israeli syndicates in Costa Rica. In addition to Guatemala, Farinas owns night clubs in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama and he has, in the past, been linked to the CIA. However, because of his links to Ortega, Farinas may have had a falling out with Langley, which used friendly Mossad operatives to target him in Guatemala, but ended up killing Cabral instead.
WMR has reported extensively on the activities of the Russian-Israeli Mafia but, thanks to the ATLAS Report from the Belgian police, the Mafia now has a proper name: Nebula....








Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Walid Jumblatt goes where CIA/MOSSAD say he should go….

.

Most Lebanese “politicians” are mere stooges and puppets, they are just cogs in the wheel and not those that exercise power....


لو كان في قوى سياسية حقيقية في لبنان وليست عشائر طائفية لما كان لوليد جنبلاط هذا المهرج السياسي مكان في لبنان اين الشعب الذي يدعي انه (غير شكل ) لماذا لا يطربقها على رؤوسهم وينهي هذه المهزلة ؟؟؟؟


كثّرة الفرفرة بتكسّر الجوانح
 أن جنبلاط قد وُلد وفي فمه أفعى وفي يده خنجر ، وشتان ما بين حامل السيف وحامل الخنجر



IDF Commander of the Herev Battalion Lieutenant-Colonel Shadi Abu Fares is a DRUZE skunk and a friend of the ZIOCONNED Walid CIA-MOSSAD JUMBLATT....
The HEREV battalion is the main Israeli force deployed along the Lebanese border for over a decade....
No other battalion is as familiar with the Lebanese border as the Druze Battalion. Its combatants have spent the last decade deployed in the area.

But even they can't predict what shape the next conflict will take. "The main scenario we are preparing for is one of infiltration which also entails an abduction threat," Lt. Col. Abu Fares says.


Walid CIA Jumblatt can retire from politics tomorrow and Druze long-term interest would be better off. Being obsessed about the interest of the sect is a self-serving falsification that sold all too well. The prosperity of the “Castle” is the key. Think of him this way and Jumblatt is an open book...., a CIA book wall to Wall since the mid-70s when Walid Jumblatt was recruited by CIA....


Walid Jumblat is unprincipled and any attempt to whitewash his flip flops as being an asset is very misplaced , in my opinion....


Jumblatt like characters cannot survive in any other political environment where the electorate demand consistency , reliability and accountability. Jumblat does not have to worry about any of these things because his position of power does not depend on either his knowledge, hardwork or charisma. His power is inherited, he is a scion , a feudal lord who does not have to take into consideration what his “serfs” think.


A major contradiction in Walid Jumblatts’ life is his efforts to market himself as a Progressive Socialist when he is neither.
What would you call a capitalist who becomes a socialist for a while then becomes a capitalist again and then back to socialist? Would you ever refer to such a person as prescient or clever? I hope not. Such a person is best described as opportunistic, unprincipled and untrustworthy. No one wants a fare weather friend.


I am sure that Walid Jumblatt does not perceive himself to be that way. He thinks that he is shrewd and that through “Takya” he is protecting the safety of his tribe. 


“Takya is sort of a self defense mechanism that the Druze developed when their very existence was in jeopardy. The Moslem majority looked down with suspicion upon these Druze upstarts and was marshalling its vastly superior power and resources to squash the religious “deviants”. That is when the Druze decided to adopt the concept of “Takya” or pretense. It was decided that the Druze could avoid the wrath of the majority if they act as if they have assimilated when in reality they can go on practicing in secret their true beliefs. This flexibility was not meant to be genuine but was to be employed only in order to deceive.” This is the way described on Oct 10 , 2009 in the following post http://rationalrepublic.blogspot.com/2009/10/political-takya.html
Mr. Jumblatt believes currently that it is his job to be a centrist with leanings towards March 8 but wants to act as the bridge between the two camps. But can he be trusted or is all of this an act?


Walid Jumblatt is a CIA asset since the Mid-70s and he still is a full-fledged CIA/MOSSAD asset today….even when he makes occasional U-Turns… or a make-believe U-Turn. It is always meant to be a move that serves better CIA and mostly on their Direct instructions. He is most useful to CIA when he can meet directly with Bashar Assad, his close team and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallh and the Clown Berri…etc. [ Knowing intentions and inner thinking of Leaderships does not come from OSINT..., it comes from direct meetings and face to face dialogue.]


Walid Jumblatt goes where CIA/MOSSAD say he should go…., Hence his enduring Friendship with Jeffrey Feltman…and many “others” from the other side of the pond, in Russia, the EU, Qatar, Turkey & even today in KSA….


I am even willing to say that Walid Jumblatt’s U-Turn in 09 was done knowing full well what was being planned for Syria, Hezbollah & Iran down the line, which is what we are seeing today in Syria, and soon enough in Lebanon and probably Iran, if the zioconned crazies on the Potomac get their way this summer .

Notice how Saad Hariri is giving clear instructions to his puppets never to criticize Walid Jumblatt, no matter what Jumblatt says about Hariri and his Clique… because Hariri probably knows what you guys don’t…. Takya becomes quite handy in this environment and is second nature for the slick Jumblatt. This time though, he knows that his life is on line more than ever before.... 











.
الصفاقة البارزة من دول عربية بائسة، ورائحة العنصرية والاستعمار التي تفوح من أنوف الغربيين، والاستعلاء الكريه الصادر عن الجانب التركي، كل ذلك يقود إلى نقطة واحدة: فصل جديد من المواجهة مع التيار الداعم للمقاومة



 وليد جنبلاط، الذي يتمنى اليوم لو تنشق الأرض وتبتلعه، بدل إخضاعه للامتحان الأقسى في تاريخه السياسي. يعرف وليد جنبلاط أنه رسب، وهذه المرة لا مجال للمساعدة، لا من الجمهور ولا من صديق، ولا من أقرب المقربين. ويمكن أن يكون الحل


الأفضل عنده، تقريب موعد خروجه من رئاسة حزبه وطائفته وبالابتعاد سريعاً... مباشرة نحو نيويورك



الثورات العربية تحت عربات الاستعمار الجديد



سيشعر حكام دول الخليج بأن النار لا تقف في وجهها جدران فولاذية ولا قوات متعددة الجنسية. وما دام الجميع معجَبين هذه الأيام بالربيع العربي، فها هو يقترب من حيث لا يحتسبون
 لجنبلاط: أنت ديكتاتور طائفي والغدر ليس شطارة
"تعليقا على تصريحات النائب وليد جنبلاط وآخرها خلال المقابلة التي أجرتها معه محطة تلفزيون المنار مساء الجمعة الماضي، والتي تطرق فيها الى حريات الشعوب وحقوق الإنسان ملقيا الدروس والمواعظ عن الدكتاتورية والفساد والإجرام والسرقة والقتل وغيرها، فقد رأى  أن عموم اللبنانيين يعرفون تماما أن كل تلك الإرتكابات وألأوصاف إنما تنطبق على النائب جنبلاط قبل أي أحد آخر، وحيث يكفيهم أن يتذكروا ما فعله ويفعله، كديكتاتور طائفي صغير في لبنان، في إرهاب خصومه من الدروز وغير الدروز، وفي الفساد في الدولة وغير الدولة، وما أمر به من مجازر وإغتيالات، ليس أقلها تهجير وقتل آلاف المسيحيين في الجبل وقضية إغتيال سماحة العلامة الشيخ صبحي الصالح والمستشار الرئاسي الدكتور محمد شقير وكثيرون غيرهم وصولا الى دوره المباشر والمعروف في مؤامرة شهود الزور وإعتقال الضباط الأربعة وتهديد عائلاتهم وأولادهم بالقتل، مستغلا بأبشع الصور جريمة إغتيال الرئيس الشهيد رفيق الحريري".
 أضاف : "ربما من حسنات القدر ورحمته بلبنان واللبنانيين أن جنبلاط لا يملك الحجم ولا القوة اللذين يسمحان له بالتحكم المطلق بمصير البلاد والعباد ، وإلا لكانوا عانوا منه ومن مزاجيته وساديته وإضطراباته النفسية ما لم يشهده الليبيون من معمر القذافي ولا الروس من جوزيف ستالين . اللبنانيون يعرفون أن جنبلاط هو مزيج من هذين الإثنين معا تحت قناع حضاري مزيف تسكنه ذهنية إقطاعية من القرون الوسطى تجعله يظن نفسه وعن خطأ أنه أبدا فوق الحساب والمحاسبة. هو مع الثورات العربية وتحرير الشعوب وتطيير الأنظمة حيث لا مال ولا نفط، وهو ضد الشعوب والثورات ومع الأنظمة حيث المال والنفط. هو مع المحكمة الدولية وتمويلها من أجل العدالة وهو في الوقت نفسه مع حماية وتمويل شهود الزور الذين ضللوا تلك العدالة.

هو تارة مع الأميركيين ويريد منهم أن يقضوا على المقاومة في لبنان وأن يجتاحوا دمشق، وهو تارة أخرى مع سوريا والمقاومة متباهيا بأنه قتل جنود المارينز الأميركيين في خلده. وهو في كل تلك الحالات مكشوف لدى الجميع ويعتبر أنه يضحك على الجميع لكنه لا يخدع أحدا إلا نفسه. هو يعتقد بأن الشطارة تكمن في الغدر والتقلبات مرة مع صديق ومرة مع خصم أو عدو ، وإلى أن يجتمع قريبا ضده الصديق والخصم أو العدو، فهو يتجبر ويطعن حين يقوى ثم يزحف ويهادن حين يضعف، وربما فات النائب جنبلاط، المتهم زورا هذه المرة بأنه قارئ جيد للتطورات، أن يدرك أن الزمن الحالي هو زمن الجد وليس زمن الألاعيب والبهلوانيات، وانه زمن الكبار وليس زمن الصغار الذين يكبرون في الفتنة كما تعود، و أنه ربما من الأجدى به أن يكتفي بإلقاء الدروس والمواعظ على نفسه وأن يكف عن التمادي وإستغباء الناس، وهو يدرك تماما أنه لو كان مقيما في بلد غير لبنان لكان قابعا في سجون إحدى المحاكم الدولية لجرائمه المشهودة ضد الإنسانية خلال الحرب اللبنانية، و ليس ذلك ببعيد".



 بالبحث عن الحقيقة، فإن جدول الأعمال الفعلي لمن يقف خلف المحكمة وخلف التحقيقات وخلف الاتهامات، انتقل إلى مستوى جديد، وبلاعبين جدد أيضاً
 كالحديث عن الفِرَق الموسيقية العالمية الكبيرة المتخصصة في عزف الابداعات الكلاسيكية، فيقول اولاً، ان دور أي عازف رئيسي في الفرقة مثلاً مهم جداً. إذ ان اي نشازمنه يعطِّل الحفل سواء اذا اخطأ في قراءة "النوتة" او في متابعة حركات "المايسترو". ويقول ثانياً، ان قائد الفرقة هو صاحب الكلمة فيها. ويقول ثالثاً، ان العازف المشار اليه لا يستطيع ان يخطىء، وخصوصاً اذا تعمّد ذلك، لأنه يستثير بذلك قائد الفرقة واصحاب المسرح والمشاهدين. وطبيعي ان يعرّضه ذلك للعقاب



الصفاقة البارزة من دول عربية بائسة، ورائحة العنصرية والاستعمار التي تفوح من أنوف الغربيين، والاستعلاء الكريه الصادر عن الجانب التركي، كل ذلك يقود إلى نقطة واحدة: فصل جديد من المواجهة مع التيار الداعم للمقاومة
 وليد جنبلاط، الذي يتمنى اليوم لو تنشق الأرض وتبتلعه، بدل إخضاعه للامتحان الأقسى في تاريخه السياسي. يعرف وليد جنبلاط أنه رسب، وهذه المرة لا مجال للمساعدة، لا من الجمهور ولا من صديق، ولا من أقرب المقربين. ويمكن أن يكون الحل
الأفضل عنده، تقريب موعد خروجه من رئاسة حزبه وطائفته وبالابتعاد سريعاً... مباشرة نحو نيويورك


بعضاً من الجزر والمكسرات يا أكرم... حكاية من الثمانينات عن شهيّب
عاد أكرم شهيّب بعد غياب استمرّ منذ موقعة 7 أيّار. عاد أكرم شهيّب بأمر، طبعاً، وقد يعود ليختفي بأمر، طبعاً. أكرم شهيب كان نجماً في «ثورة حرّاس الأرز» وتفنّن في وضع شال الأرز حول عنقه. كان في التحليل ندّاً لفارس سعيد. وعودة شهيّب تزامنت مع تقلّبات جديدة لوليد جنبلاط، لكن إقامة شهيّب في الإعلام قد تطول وقد تقصر، وفق حسابات لا يعلم بها إلا الراسخون في علم التقلّب والانتهازيّة والتحوّل، الذي لا يفقه فيه أحد أكثر من وليد جنبلاط.

 لا تدري بماذا تشعر وأنت تراقب وزراء جنبلاط ونوّابه وهم يتكيّفون مع تقلّباته واستداراته الانتهازيّة السريعة. أحياناً تشعر بالشفقة عليهم، وخصوصاً أنّ البيك الجنبلاطي لا يتورّع عن السخرية منهم وتقريعهم في العلن: ألم يصفهم قبل سنوات بالغباء فقط لأنّهم لم يتكيّفوا بالسرعة المناسبة مع واحد من تقلّباته السريعة؟ ألا يشعرون بالدوار مع هذه التقلّبات؟ ألا يُصابون بذلك الداء الذي يصيب من ينتقل من حيّز زماني في الكرة الأرضيّة إلى آخر بسرعة رحلات الطائرات؟ وكيف لا تشعر بشيء من الشفقة نحو من يتحرّك كعصيّ أحمد الأسعد في زمن الإقطاع الشيعي (القضاء التام على الإقطاع الشيعي كان من إنجازات الحرب الأهليّة، من يعمل حساباً لعلي عسيران، مثلاً، الذي لم ينطق في سنوات نيابته إلا في «ويكيليكس»)؟ كيف لا تشعر بشيء من الشفقة إزاء من يتحرّك في حيّز من المهانة عندما يُطلب من النائب والوزير الجنبلاطي تعليق كرامته ومبادئه على شمّاعة، قبل الانضمام إلى القائمة الجنبلاطيّة؟ طبعاً، تضم القائمة الانتخابيّة الجنبلاطيّة (من أيّام كمال جنبلاط) مموّلين لا يفتحون أفواههم قطّ: من منكم ومنكنّ مثلاً سمع صوت نعمة طعمة؟ يرد اسم نعمة طعمة في الصحف اللبنانيّة عندما يستقلّ جنبلاط طائرته الخاصّة في رحلات «البزنس» الخاصة به المطعّمة بشيء من السياسة (لكن هل ينفصل «البزنس» عن السياسة عند وليد جنبلاط؟). ومن مفارقات الحرب الأهليّة الكثيرة أنّ زعيم الحركة الوطنيّة بالوراثة (وتلك مفارقة بحدّ ذاتها) هو الأكثر حرصاً على التقيّد بشروط الزعامة الإقطاعيّة البائدة وتقاليدها ومراسمها. أي إنّ قائد حلم التغيير الذي حملته الحركة الوطنيّة اللبنانيّة هو أشد مُتمسّك بالتقاليد والأعراف الإقطاعيّة وما قبل الإقطاعيّة. حتى ترميم «قصر» المختارة يدخل في هذا الحيّز (من يزُر القصور التاريخيّة في أوروبا يدرك أنّ أياً من قصور لبنان لا يستحق صفة القصر، وأنّ الصفة تدخل في باب المبالغة اللبنانيّة التقليديّة).

 ولكن في الحديث عن نوّاب جنبلاط ووزرائه، لا يمكنك إلا أن تعبّر من جهة أخرى عن عدم احترام فائق لنماذج بشريّة ترتضي في القرن الحادي والعشرين أن تؤدي دور الأدوات أو البيادق أو الرجال الآليّين الذين قرأنا عنهم في مجلّات «سوبرمان» القديمة. من يرتضي أن يغيّر قناعاته وتصريحاته بأمر بين ليلة وضحاها؟ من يرتضي أن يكون مرتمياً في أحضان النظام السوري يوم الاثنين، ثم يُؤمَر بأن يؤيّد الاحتجاجات على النظام السوري يوم السبت؟ الأمر لا يستحق الشفقة بتاتاً إلا إذا سلّمنا (على طريقة الزعامة الجنبلاطيّة) بأنّ الناس ليسوا سواسية كأسنان المشط، وأنّ هناك من يولد ليأمر وهناك أكثريّة تولد لتطيع وتصغي وتنفّذ. لا، الشفقة غير واردة، ولا يجوز أن تكون واردة. الأسوأ، أنّ هناك نماذج من الطاعة عند هؤلاء تصيبك بأكثر من الامتعاض العادي: وائل أبو فاعور مثلاً يصطنع أكثر من غيره الاقتناع بالتحوّل والتقلّب الذي يقوم به، مُتكيّفاً مع تقلّبات البيك الجنبلاطي، لكن الحديث هو عن أكرم شهيّب.

 روى لي قبل سنوات ... عن أكرم شهيّب حكاية من الثمانينات. كان ... في دمشق وكان أن صودف وجود وليد جنبلاط فتوافقا على اللقاء. دعاه الأخير إلى جناحه في فندق «الشيراتون» على ما أذكر. دخل ... وجلس مع جنبلاط ليحتسيا كأساً من الخمر. نظر ... فوجد أنّ أكرم شهيّب يقف في زاوية في الجناح الذي كان جنبلاط يقيم فيه. وكان جنبلاط يصيح نحوه بأوامر: بعضاً من الجزر، يا أكرم. أو بعضاً من المكسّرات، يا أكرم، الخ. وكان أكرم يقدّم ما يُطلب منه بصمت وطاعة، لكن ... الذي كان يعرف شهيّب من عاليه تضايق من المشهد، فطلب منه أن يجلس معهما ويشاركهما الشراب. رفض شهيّب ورفض جنبلاط، الذي علّق بأنّه أفضل حيث هو، أو كلام من هذا القبيل. هذا يكفي للتمهيد لحديث عن دور شهيّب في سلّم القيادة الجنبلاطيّة.
 أكرم شهيّب أو غيره من نواب جنبلاط ووزرائه يتحرّكون بأمر ويصمتون بأمر.... هم تحت رحمة البيك الجنبلاطي  و  .... إن استدار استداروا، وإن قفز قفزوا، وإن نطق هزوا رؤوسهم بالموافقة الحماسيّة.

قد تكون الطائفة الدرزيّة من أكثر الطوائف الرازحة تحت وطأة الحكم والزعامة الإقطاعيّة. هذا جزء من التركة الجنبلاطيّة التي عرفت كيف تستخدم الحرب لإحداث المزيد من التراص الطائفي. ووزراء جنبلاط تمرّسوا في ما تمرّس هو به. أكرم شهيّب أو مروان حمادة أو غازي العريضي أطنبوا مثلهم مثل معلّمهم «أبو البوصلة» في تبجيل النظام السوري على مرّ العقود. وكان بعضهم مثله مثل المعلّم «أبو البوصلة» يتحدّث في السرّ في ما لا يتحدّث به في العلن، لكن السجل العام موجود، وأكرم شهيّب كان فصيحاً في مديح النظام السوري، كما كان وليد جنبلاط نفسه (لكن جنبلاط تقتضي الأمانة القول كان أقرب إلى الزمرة الحاكمة التي ارتكبت مجزرة حماة في 1982)، لكن لا دور لأحد منهم خارج الدور المرسوم له من جنبلاط نفسه. قد يكون مروان حمادة الاستثناء ربّما بسبب قربه الشديد من رفيق الحريري، الذي كان (على طريقة ياسر عرفات في التعامل مع المنظمات الفلسطينيّة) يجول على التنظيمات والكتل النيابيّة في لبنان لابتياع من يشاء منها. حظي حمادة بموقع وثيق الصلة.

 برز أكرم شهيّب، مثل علاء الدين ترّو، في الميدان في الحرب الأهليّة (فيما برز غازي العريضي في ميدان الإذاعة الجنبلاطيّة أثناء الحرب). وحروب الحزب التقدّمي الاشتراكي حروب محض طائفيّة لا علاقة لها بالاشتراكيّة ولا بالتقدميّة. صحيح أنّ جنبلاط في ساعات التخلّي أو التجلّي أو التخلّي عن التخلّي (العمليّة عويصة وتحتاج إلى شروح تعصى على الجهّال) يشيد من وقت لآخر بحزبه وبدوره في المقاومة، لكنّ أحداً لم يفدنا بعد عن دور الحزب التقدّمي الاشتراكي في مقاومة إسرائيل. أين، وكيف؟ من يفيدنا؟ حتى في سنوات الحرب الأهليّة الأولى في 75 ـــــ 76 نأى الحزب بنفسه عن المشاركة في أكثر حقب الحرب علمانيّة في القتال، ووطنيّة في المواجهة. وكانت العلاقة بين كمال جنبلاط وكميل شمعون كافية لعزل الجبل برمّته عن الحرب الضروس الجارية من حولهما.

 وأكرم شهيّب برز في حرب الجبل، على ما قيل: وهي واحد من أقبح فصول الحرب اللبنانيّة لأنّه لا جدال في وحشيّتها وفي طائفيّتها (من دون الإنكار أنّ القوّات [ نخبة من القتلة وأدوات الفتنة والعملاء, 
   سمير جعجع مجرم وقاتل ومفجر لدور العبادة    ] هي التي تتحمّل مسؤوليّة إشعال تلك الحرب، كما تتحمّل مسؤوليّة إشعال معظم الحروب في لبنان، بالنيابة عن إسرائيل أو بالنيابة عن طموحاتها الطائفيّة). والقادة في الحزب التقدّمي الاشتراكي يصعدون وينزلون بمزاج من الزعيم الأوحد في الحزب، وقد رفّع أخيراً عضواً من الطائفة الشيعيّة تدليلاً على عدم طائفيّة الحزب. وكان شهيّب يمثّل الحزب في لجان وقف إطلاق النار الكثيرة أثناء الحرب. هكذا، برز في إعلام الحرب، على الأقل.

 وفي شريط على «يوتيوب» يبدو أكرم شهيّب كمنسّق بين الحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي وقوات الاحتلال الإسرائيلي، ومن بدا كأنّه نسّق بين الحزب التقدّمي الاشتراكي وقوّات الاحتلال الإسرائيلي في الجبل ينسّق اليوم بين الحزب نفسه وحزب مقاومة إسرائيل في لبنان. إنّها الخفّة (بالمعنييْن) في التعاطي السياسي. ولقد سمح جنبلاط لشهيّب بأن يبرز في حركة آل سعود في لبنان بعد اغتيال رفيق الحريري (يأسف وليد جنبلاط لعدم إدراج «ثورة الأرز» في المنهج الدراسي اللبناني. معه حق. ولماذا لا تُدرج أيضاً نصائح وليد جنبلاط للعدوّ الإسرائيلي أثناء حرب تمّوز في المنهج الدراسي أيضاً؟ هي جزء من «ثورة الأرز». ولماذا لا يُدرج أيضاً كيف أنّ قائد الحركة الوطنيّة اللبنانيّة ردّ على اجتياح إسرائيل للبنان عبر «النأي» بحزبه عن مقاومة إسرائيل، وعبر استقبال خاص وحميم لشمعون بيريز في عقر قصر المختارة، حيث بقي جنبلاط سعياً للسترة بعد الغزو؟ و«ثورة الأرز» تستحق أن تُدرج في المنهج الدراسي: إما السعودي وإما الأميركي، ولكن ما علاقتها بتاريخ لبنان؟).

 برز شهيّب في «ثورة الأرز» تلك، وصالَ وجالَ وشال الأرز لم يفارق عنقه. استطاب شهيب الدور الجديد الذي اختطّه جنبلاط لنوابه ووزرائه... اختار غازي العريضي أن  ينخرط في «ثورة الأرز» كما خاض غمارها شهيّب، لكن مع البيك الجنبلاطي ليس هناك عفويّة في التحرّك من قبل النوّاب والوزراء. قد يكون الفارق في الأداء جزءاً من توزيع الأدوار. وعندما برم جنبلاط ويمم شطر النظام السوري واستخباراته من جديد بعد 2008، اختار النظام السوري وحزب الله أن يكون غازي العريضي هو صلة الوصل لأنّه  تلوّث مثل الآخرين باعتناق عقيدة «حرّاس الأرز»، التي وسمت الحركة التي تسمّي نفسها «استقلاليّة» لأنّها ربطت مصير لبنان بمصير المخطط الأميركي الإسرائيلي، وفي هذا بالمعيار اللبناني الكثير من الاستقلال، وخصوصاً إذا كان الرجل الأبيض يكثر من زياراته إلى لبنان للإشراف على تنفيذ المخطط بحذافيره.

 مناسبة الكلام عن أكرم شهيّب أنّه كان صامتاً منذ تقرّب معلّمه جنبلاط «أبو البوصلة» ـــــ وبوصلة جنبلاط لا تتحرّك لكشف المصائر السياسيّة أو التقلبّات الإقليميّة، بل هي تتجه إلى مصادر المال والتمويل ـــــ من النظام السوري ومن حزب الله. كان أكرم شهيب الذي امتشق بندقيّة في حرب 7 أيار (وهي استغرقت أكثر من حروب داحس والغبراء وفق العويل والنحيب اللذين صاحباها في إعلام الحريري وإعلام آل سعود) ودافع عن الجبل بوجه هجمة ظالمة (ظالمة لأنّ البيك الجنبلاطي لم يكن يريد إلا إعطاء المعلومات عن شبكة اتصالات حزب الله لـ... الرأي العام ـــــ  ولإسرائيل، لأنّ الخريطة التي أصدرها مروان حمادة وجال بها على العواصم العربيّة والغربيّة كانت للنفع العام). أكرم شهيّب تحوّل إلى المنسّق الميداني للعلاقة مع حزب الله. وشهيّب الذي كان صامتاً طيلة تلك الفترة بدأ بالنطق منذ أشهر معدودة فقط. بقي صامتاً ربما لأنّه استطاب الإقامة في ربوع «ثورة حرّاس الأرز» وفي حضور اجتماعات الأمانة العامّة لـ14 آذار (التي تترقّبها جماهير الشعب العربي عن كثب لأنّ تلك الأمانة ـــــ كما تقول هي ـــــ هي التي ألهمت الانتفاضات في العالم العربي. بمعنى آخر ومن دون تواضع مصطنع، فريد حبيب وعمّار حوري وأكرم شهيّب هم الذين دفعوا الشعب العربي نحو الثورة.... من الغريب أنّ هناك من يختلف مع هذه النظريّة الدامغة، بالرغم من الحلف الوثيق بين نظام حسني مبارك وحركة 14 آذار اللبنانيّة حتى لا نخلط بينها وبين شقيقتها حركة 14 آذار السوريّة، التي وجهت بياناً مكتوباً بنَفَس المكتب الإعلامي الحريري، موجهاً إلى الشعب اللبناني، لم تتطرّق فيه بكلمة إلى الجرائم التي ارتُكبت في لبنان ضد عمّال ومواطنين سوريّين في غمرة «ثورة حرّاس الأرز»).

 وقد اختار شهيّب أن يصدح في موضوع بات مختصّاً فيه، وهو موضوع اختطاف الزعيم البعثي السابق، شبلي العيسمي. شهيّب يصفه دوماً بـ«المناضل الكبير»، وقد قيل فيه بعد اختطافه ما لم يُقل في جورج حبش بعد وفاته («....»). هنا تبرز مفارقة أو تناقض. ظننا أنّ أكرم شهيب، بعدما انخرط في «ثورة حرّاس الأرز»، بات يحب الحياة والديموقراطيّة كثيراً، وبات ينبذ البعثيّة لأنّها «شموليّة»، كما يرد في مصطلحاتهم الجديدة ـــــ ظريف كيف يستبطن الفريق الموالي لأميركا في العالم العربي خطاب اليمين الأميركي ضد الشيوعيّة العالميّة، في خطابه ضد أعدائه المحليّين، لكن شبلي العيسمي كان جزءاً من النظام البعثي نفسه في سوريا في الستينات، وعاد وانضم إلى جناح صدّام حسين في البعث بعد الانشقاق الشهير. لا ندري من هو الذي اختطف شبلي، وقد لا نعلم عن قريب. ستُسجّل ضد مجهول، على الطريقة اللبنانيّة المعهودة، والرجل لا يملك المليارات ولم يقدّم خدمات جلّى للمخططات الأميركيّة الصهيونيّة، ولم يكن بيدقاً بيد آل سعود: أي إنّ أميركا لن تؤلّف له لجنة تحقيق دوليّة. قد يكون النظام السوري هو المسؤول، أو أنّه من المرجّح أنّه مسؤول عن جريمة الاختطاف. إنّ جرائم البعثيّين ضد بعضهم البعض (في لبنان وفي خارجه) أفظع من جرائم البعثيّين ضد غيرهم، هذا مع استسهال الإجرام على أنواعه عند البعث. وقد نشط النظامان السوري والعراقي البعثيان في اغتيال قادة بعثيّين من الطرف الآخر، وخصوصاً إذا كان البعثي المذكور قد اختار ترك القطر نحو القطر الآخر انشقاقاً. سلسلة طويلة من الجرائم والسيّارات المفخّخة المبتادلة في هذا الصدد. وقد صفّى النظام السوري في لبنان عدداً لا بأس به من منشقّين بعثيّين عبر السنوات (بدءاً باغتيال محمّد عمران في طرابلس في 1972، وأدّى ذلك إلى تفاهم قسري بين الحكومتيْن في لبنان وسوريا على عدم إيواء لبنان أيّ منشقّين أو معارضين سوريّين، إلى أن تغيّرت المعادلة بعد اغتيال رفيق الحريري)، إضافةً إلى بعثيّين عراقيّين (حتى لا ندرج تفجير السفارة العراقيّة في بيروت). طبعاً، النظام الصدّامي لم يقصّر هو الآخر في التفجيرات والجرائم ضد النظام البعثي الخصم.

 لكن لماذا هذه الحماسة المُفاجئة من شهيّب نحو خطف «المناضل الكبير» شبلي العيسمي؟ هل هو المخطوف الوحيد في لبنان، وهل لأنّ القضيّة «إنسانيّة» كما يزعم الإنساني شهيّب؟ هل كان شهيّب وقادة 14 آذار سيرفعون الصوت لو أنّ الاستخبارات السعوديّة قد اختطفت معارضاً سعوديّاً في لبنان، كما فعلت في 1979 بمساعدة حركة فتح ضد ناصر السعيد، مع العلم أنّ رفيق الحريري سعى إلى إغلاق محطة «الجديد» فقط لأنّها استضافت معارضاً سعوديّاً من لندن؟ ثم متى تنتهي تلك الكذبة التي تنشط فيها القوّات اللبنانيّة، عن أنّ كل المخطوفين في لبنان اختطفهم النظام السوري، مع الاعتراف بأنّ النظام السوري اختطف لبنانيّين وفلسطينيّين وسوريّين من لبنان عبر السنوات؟ إنّ قوّات سمير جعجع  وحزب الكتائب مسؤولان عن العدد الأكبر من الخطف أثناء سنوات الحرب (والحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي قام هوبالعدد الأكبر الآخر بالخطف، لكن التصفية بالفؤوس عجّلت في معرفة مصائر المخطوفين). والشعب اللبناني يستسهل النظريّات والأكاذيب التي تبرّئ ذمّة اللبنانيّين، وتحمّل المسؤوليّة عن أفعالهم وقبائحهم إلى آخرين على أن يكونوا عرباً (الرجل الأبيض محظي في لبنان).

 بصرف النظر عن المعاناة العائليّة والإنسانيّة لخطف رجل تسعيني يستحق أن يُطلق من الأسر، لكن تصوير العيسمي على أنّه«المناضل الكبير» أو الديموقراطي الكبير يتناقض مع سيرة الرجل، وخصوصاً في سنوات خدمته لصدّام حسين ونظامه القمعي. وهذا يوضح بالكامل طبيعة الأهداف السياسيّة لأكرم شهيّب ومن دفعه إلى تبنّي القضيّة. كيف تكون يا أكرم شهيّب ضد النظام الشمولي في سوريا، ومعه في حالة صدّام حسين، والعقيدة هي واحدة والقمع عينه (طبعاً، جنبلاط وشلته النيابيّة والوزاريّة لم يكونوا يعلمون عن الطبيعة الإجراميّة للنظام السوري في عقود التحالف الوثيق معه عبر العقود). يمكن مناصرة قضيّة شبلي العيسمي من منظار إنساني، والمطالبة بكشف مصيره دون تزوير تاريخه: إنّ معارضة النظام السوري لا تتوافق مع مناصرة النظام الصدّامي، إذا كان المعيار كما يقول شهيّب هو حب الديموقراطيّة. قد يكون اهتمام شهيّب عائد إلى ظرف المكان: فمدينة عاليه هي عرين شهيّب، لكن هذا يطرح أسئلة إنسانيّة لشهيب: أين كان حسه الإنساني عندما تعرّض عمّال سوريّون أبرياء لجرائم خطف وتعذيب وقتل في منطقة عاليه، وخصوصاً بعد اغتيال جبران تويني؟ ومن سيكشف مصير 700 من العمال السوريّين الذين تعرّضوا للخطف بعد اغتيال الحريري (لم يشر بيان المجلس الوطني السوري، الذي نشر ملصقاً يشكر فيه الملك السعودي، وابتاع مساحة في جريدة الأمير خالد بن سلطان لنشره، إليهم ولو بكلمة، لكن المجلس فرع مثل فرع 14 آذار عند الأمير مقرن.....). ولماذا لم تتحرّك الحميّة عند أكرم شهيب إزاء وضع العمال السوريّين في منطقة عاليه، حيث جالت عصابات «مجهولة الهويّة السياسيّة» تصطاد عمّالاً سوريّين في محطات الوقود في المنطقة؟

 لا يؤدي شهيب دوراً من عنده، ولا يحيد عن تقلّبات وليد جنبلاط. اللحاق به يصيب المرء باللهاث وبضيق التنفّس، لكن من نشأ على الطاعة وكسب منها، يستسهل إهمال القناعات والمبادئ حبّاً بالزعيم الأوحد (تباحث وليد جنبلاط، على ما قرأنا في شأن الثورات العربيّة، مع أمير قطر: لعلّ الاثنين توافقا على مبدأ نبذ الوراثة السياسيّة العائليّة)، لكن دور شهيب يبدو نافراً بصورة خاصّة، لأنّ اهتمامه بأمر العيسمي تلازم مع التحوّل الأخير لوليد جنبلاط. لو طال أمد تحالف جنبلاط مع النظام السوري وأجهزة استخباراته، لما فتح شهيب فاه في أمر العيسمي، لكن شهيّب لا يهاب المواقف والتحديّات، وهو سيستمرّ في المطالبة بكشف مصير العيسمي إلا إذا أتاه الأمر من المختارة بالتنديد بالعيسمي، وبالهتاف لخاطفيه. احبسوا أنفاسكم وأنفاسكن



لفهم سياسة آل جنبلاط: ماذا حصل عام 1723؟ 
 
 
قال القنصل الانكليزي شرشل سنة 1853: "الدروز مستعدون دومًا للتودَّد الى الجانب المسيطر..."

لم يكن يقال هذا عن الدروز حين كانت تسود عليهم العائلات التي من أصل درزي. وما غيّر المعادلة هو شراء علي جنبلاط السني، بالمال، السيادة على الطائفة الدرزية سنة 1723، وعمل حفيده بشير جنبلاط مع الأمير بشير، على إخضاع المسيحيين والشيعة في لبنان. آنذاك، كان البشيران يقولان إنهما على دين أجدادهما من أهل السنة، يصومان طوال شهر رمضان، ويعطيان الزكاة. وكل منهما بنى جامعًا يقيم فيه الصلوات الإسلامية.

قوة آل جنبلاط أضعفت الحزب اليزبكي، الذي لا يستطيع مقاومة المال بالمال، لأن لبنان الذي يدافع عنه، هو كيان فقير يستمد قوته من وحدة شعبه. لذا تلتف أكثرية الدروز حول اليزبكيين في وقت السلم الأهلي.

مصلحة آل جنبلاط تقضي إذًا برفض السلام الذي يضعف سلطتهم على الدروز، التي طالما ضحوا بأموال كثيرة لاكتسابها، وكلفتهم موت الكثيرين من رؤسائهم. فيرحّبون بالتدخل الخارجي الذي يمدهم بالمال والسلاح والدعم السياسي، في مقابل إشعالهم الفتنة التي تضعف لبنان وتجعل اجتياحه ممكنًا. من هنا، العنف والتحريض الطائفي والعنصري في أشهر خطاباتهم. من هنا أيضًا، تبديلهم تحالفاتهم إن بدلت تحالفاتها القوى الخارجية الداعمة لهم.

يؤمن المال والتحريض لآل جنبلاط قيادة الطائفة الدرزية في أيام الحرب والفتنة، لأن الخوف المصيري يجعل الأكثرية الدرزية تنسى أن آل جنبلاط، حين جاءوا إلى لبنان، لم يحاربوا سوى فخر الدين وغيره من الدروز المدافعين عن لبنان، وأن بندقيتهم لم تتجه صوب صدور المسيحيين والشيعة، إلا بعدما قضت على قوة الأُسر الدرزية.

لم يخدم آل جنبلاط سلطة لبنان، إلا حين استمدوا منها القوة. في سائر الأوقات، كانوا منافسين لها، ويخدمون العثمانيين. بعد سقوط السلطنة العثمانية، خدموا فرنسا. وبعد الانتداب، خدموا الدول التي كانت تحاول أن تحكم لبنان من خلال سياسييه. هذا ما قاله حافظ الاسد عن كمال جنبلاط في خطابه الشهير، في 20  تموز سنة 1976 أما وليد جنبلاط، فقد قال في مجلة بلايبوي، في 16 آذار 1984، إن الليبيين موّلوا الحرب التي شنها على دولة لبنان ومسيحييه. وأضاف أن القذافي أوقف التمويل، وأنه يبحث عن سيد آخر بين رؤساء العالم، يعطيه المال (والأوامر)، كي يتمكن من تمويل الميليشيا التي يملكها كسيد إقطاعي. وهو مخبر تستأجره السي ـ أي ـ إي وسواها من المخابرات الأجنبية، على حد قول إيف بوني، الذي كان رئيسًا للجهاز الفرنسي لمكافحة التجسس في زمن وجود الجيشين الفرنسي والأميركي في لبنان.

مقولة آل جنبلاط: "الدرزي هو أخ للدرزي، ولا يمكنه حمل السلاح في وجهه"، تنطبق على أخصامهم وليس عليهم. فقد حارب سعيد جنبلاط شقيقه نعمان، الذي كان حينذاك شيخ الحزب الجنبلاطي. وحل محله. (وموقع جنبلاط الإلكتروني يتجاهل كليًّا وجود نعمان هذا). وقتَل سعيد اثنين من أولاد عمه من آل جنبلاط، سنة 1860، ثم حث الدروز على احتقار المسيحيين، ونهبهم وقتلهم. وقد أُثبت في شكل فادح أنه كان يعمل بالاتفاق مع العثمانيين، الذين مولوه وسلحوه.

وفي أيامنا هذه، تصرف كمال ووليد جنبلاط مثل جدهما، فأرغما الدروز على عدم مخاصمتهما في حربهما على الدولة والمسيحيين. وأسلم وليد جنبلاط بعض الدروز إلى السلطات السورية، أيام حكم خدام. وأهلهم لا يزالون ينتظرون عودتهم.





Thursday, May 26, 2011

“Secrets ... Can Be Kept Reliably ... For Decades … Even Though They Are Known to THOUSANDS of Insiders”




Judges, prosecutors and journalists all know that collusion happens every day....


Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme was a conspiracy. The heads of Enron were found guilty of conspiracy, as was the head of Adelphia. Numerous lower-level government officials have been found guilty of conspiracy. See this, this, this, this and this.
Time Magazine's financial columnist Justin Fox writes:
Some financial market conspiracies are real ...
Most good investigative reporters are conspiracy theorists, by the way.
Indeed, conspiracies are so common that judges are trained to look at conspiracy allegations as just another legal claim to be disproven or proven by the evidence.

Federal and all 50 state's codes include specific statutes addressing conspiracy, and providing the punishment for people who commit conspiracies.
***
Conspiracy is a very well-recognized crime in American law, taught to every first-year law school student as part of their basic curriculum. Telling a judge that someone has a "conspiracy theory" would be like telling him that someone is claiming that he trespassed on their property, or committed assault, or stole his car. It is a fundamental legal concept.
Obviously, many conspiracy allegations are false (if you see a judge at a dinner party, ask him to tell you some of the crazy conspiracy allegations which were made in his court). Obviously, people will either win or lose in court depending on whether or not they can prove their claim with the available evidence. But not all allegations of trespass, assault, or theft are true, either.
Proving a claim of conspiracy is no different from proving any other legal claim, and the mere label "conspiracy" is taken no less seriously by judges.

Indeed, even Obama's information tzar - who advocates using the power of the state to shut down talk of conspiracies - admits:
Some conspiracy theories, under our definition, have turned out to be true ... The Watergate hotel room used by Democratic National Committee was, in fact, bugged by Republican officials, operating at the behest of the White House. In the 1950s, the CIA did, in fact, administer LSD and related drugs under Project MKULTRA, in an effort to investigate the possibility of 'mind control.'” [This post isn't going down the rabbit hole of mind control.]
Can't Hide It
Those accusing Goldman Sachs, Dick Cheney or some other powerful people of conspiring to enrich their interests are often met with the argument that "someone would have spilled the beans" if there had really been a conspiracy.
But famed whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg explains:
It is a commonplace that "you can't keep secrets in Washington" or "in a democracy, no matter how sensitive the secret, you're likely to read it the next day in the New York Times." These truisms are flatly false. They are in fact cover stories, ways of flattering and misleading journalists and their readers, part of the process of keeping secrets well. Of course eventually many secrets do get out that wouldn't in a fully totalitarian society. But the fact is that the overwhelming majority of secrets do not leak to the American public. This is true even when the information withheld is well known to an enemy and when it is clearly essential to the functioning of the congressional war power and to any democratic control of foreign policy. The reality unknown to the public and to most members of Congress and the press is that secrets that would be of the greatest import to many of them can be kept from them reliably for decades by the executive branch, even though they are known to thousands of insiders.
History proves Ellsberg right. For example:
  • A BBC documentary shows that:
There was "a planned coup in the USA in 1933 by a group of right-wing American businessmen . . . . The coup was aimed at toppling President Franklin D Roosevelt with the help of half-a-million war veterans. The plotters, who were alleged to involve some of the most famous families in America, (owners of Heinz, Birds Eye, Goodtea, Maxwell Hse & George Bush’s Grandfather, Prescott) believed that their country should adopt the policies of Hitler and Mussolini to beat the great depression"
Moreover, "the tycoons told General Butler the American people would accept the new government because they controlled all the newspapers." Have you ever heard of this conspiracy before? It was certainly a very large one. And if the conspirators controlled the newspapers then, how much worse is it today with media consolidation?
  • The government's spying on Americans began before 9/11 (confirmed here and here. And see this.) But the public didn't learn about it until many years later. Indeed, the the New York Times delayed the story so that it would not affect the outcome of the 2004 presidential election
  • The decision to launch the Iraq war was made before 9/11. Indeed, former CIA director George Tenet said that the White House wanted to invade Iraq long before 9/11, and inserted "crap" in its justifications for invading Iraq. Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill - who sat on the National Security Council - also says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11. And top British officials say that the U.S. discussed Iraq regime change one month after Bush took office. Dick Cheney apparently even made Iraqi's oil fields a national security priority before 9/11. And it has now been shown that a handful of people were responsible for willfully ignoring the evidence that Iraq lacked weapons of mass destruction. These facts have only been publicly disclosed recently
These examples show that it is possible to keep conspiracies secret for a long time, without anyone "spilling the beans".

Discipline

To anyone who knows how covert military operations work, it is obvious that segmentation on a "need-to-know basis", along with deference to command hierarchy, means that a couple of top dogs can call the shots and most people helping won't even know the big picture.

Moreover, those who think that co-conspirators will brag about their deeds are forget that people in the military or intelligence or who have huge sums of money on the line can be very disciplined. They are not likely to go to the bar and spill the beans like a down-on-their-luck, second-rate alcoholic robber might do.

Finally, people who carry out covert operations may do so for ideological reasons -- believing that the "ends justify the means". Never underestimate the conviction of an idealogue.
"All Wars Are Based on Propaganda"
Tom Brokaw notes:
All wars are based on propaganda.
There are numerous examples, such as dressing corpses in fake uniforms and planting false intelligence on them to mislead enemies.
In addition, governments from around the world have admitted to false flag terror. In all of these cases, more than a handful of people were involved in planning, funding and carrying out the attacks. And yet no one spilled the beans or – if someone did – they were not believed.

For example:
  • The CIA admits that it hired Iranians in the 1950's to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to turn the country against its democratically-elected prime minister
  • Israel admits that an Israeli terrorist cell operating in Egypt planted bombs in several buildings, including U.S. diplomatic facilities, then left behind "evidence" implicating the Arabs as the culprits (one of the bombs detonated prematurely, allowing the Egyptians to identify the bombers, and several of the Israelis later confessed) (and see this and this)
  • As admitted by the U.S. government, recently declassified documents show that in the 1960's, the American Joint Chiefs of Staff signed off on a plan to blow up AMERICAN airplanes (using an elaborate plan involving the switching of airplanes), and also to commit terrorist acts on American soil, and then to blame it on the Cubans in order to justify an invasion of Cuba. See the following ABC news report; the official documents; and watch this interview with the former Washington Investigative Producer for ABC's World News Tonight with Peter Jennings. Official State Department documents show that - only nine months before - the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other high-level officials discussed blowing up a consulate in the Dominican Republic in order to justify an invasion of that country. (While the Joint Chiefs of Staff pushed as a serious proposal for Operation Northwoods to be carried out, cooler heads fortunately prevailed; President Kennedy or his Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara apparently vetoed the plan)
  • The South African Truth and Reconciliation Council found that, in 1989, the Civil Cooperation Bureau (a covert branch of the South African Defense Force) approached an explosives expert and asked him "to participate in an operation aimed at discrediting the ANC [the African National Congress] by bombing the police vehicle of the investigating officer into the murder incident", thus framing the ANC for the bombing
  • An Algerian diplomat and several officers in the Algerian army admit that, in the 1990s, the Algerian army frequently massacred Algerian civilians and then blamed Islamic militants for the killings (and see this video; and Agence France-Presse, 9/27/2002, French Court Dismisses Algerian Defamation Suit Against Author)
  • Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Hugh Shelton says that a Clinton cabinet member proposed letting Saddam kill an American pilot as a pretext for war in Iraq (and see this)
  • According to the Washington Post, Indonesian police admit that the Indonesian military killed American teachers in Papua in 2002 and blamed the murders on a Papuan separatist group in order to get that group listed as a terrorist organization.
  • The well-respected former Indonesian president also admits that the government probably had a role in the Bali bombings
  • As reported by BBC, the New York Times, and Associated Press, Macedonian officials admit that the government murdered 7 innocent immigrants in cold blood and pretended that they were Al Qaeda soldiers attempting to assassinate Macedonian police, in order to join the "war on terror".
  • Former Department of Justice lawyer John Yoo suggested in 2005 that the US should go on the offensive against al-Qaeda, having “our intelligence agencies create a false terrorist organization. It could have its own websites, recruitment centers, training camps, and fundraising operations. It could launch fake terrorist operations and claim credit for real terrorist strikes, helping to sow confusion within al-Qaeda’s ranks, causing operatives to doubt others’ identities and to question the validity of communications.”
  • United Press International reported in June 2005:
    U.S. intelligence officers are reporting that some of the insurgents in Iraq are using recent-model Beretta 92 pistols, but the pistols seem to have had their serial numbers erased. The numbers do not appear to have been physically removed; the pistols seem to have come off a production line without any serial numbers. Analysts suggest the lack of serial numbers indicates that the weapons were intended for intelligence operations or terrorist cells with substantial government backing. Analysts speculate that these guns are probably from either Mossad or the CIA. Analysts speculate that agent provocateurs may be using the untraceable weapons even as U.S. authorities use insurgent attacks against civilians as evidence of the illegitimacy of the resistance.
  • Quebec police admitted that, in 2007, thugs carrying rocks to a peaceful protest were actually undercover Quebec police officers
  • At the G20 protests in London in 2009, a British member of parliament saw plain clothes police officers attempting to incite the crowd to violence
  • There are many other instances of false flag attacks used throughout history proven by the historical evidence. See this, this and this.
In summary, the claim that conspiracies couldn't have happened or else we would have known when someone bragged about their deeds completely false.

Conspiracies are generally not discovered unless the facts are aggressively investigated and prosecuted....
 
 
 

Monday, May 23, 2011

'OSAMA BIN LADEN'S HOUSE BUILT BY 'CIA FRIEND' DAWOOD IBRAHIM FOR US MILITARY?

 
Dawood Ibrahim, allegedly a friend of the CIA. 
 
'OSAMA BIN LADEN'S HOUSE BUILT BY 'CIA FRIEND' DAWOOD IBRAHIM FOR US MILITARY?  A genuine US Safe House For CIA & Co.
The 'Osama bin Laden compound' in the Pakistan town of Abbottabad has a special design.

Reportedly, it is a design used by the US military.

Reportedly, the US military use this design for constructing secret and safe homes for top officers in dangerous zones.

(
Did Dawood's construction firm build 'Osama's' Abbottabad home? / Did Dawood's construction firm build 'Osama's' Abbottabad home ...)
"Highly placed sources in Indian intelligence" reveal that the contract to build such homes in Pakistan has been given to Safari Construction.

Safari Construction is reportedly owned by Dawood Ibrahim.

(
Did Dawood's construction firm build Osama's Abbottabad home?)

Reportedly, Dawood Ibrahim is an asset of the CIA.

According to the media, Pakistan intelligence agencies reveal that Dawood's construction company, Safari, is building many houses in Abbottabad.

They also reveal that Dawood has had a large home in Abbottabad for some years.

(
Did Dawood's construction firm build Osama's Abbottabad home?)

Who might have been staying in the so called 'Osama Compound'?

Most likely it would have been people working for the CIA and its friends.

This might explain the reports that it was Pakistan forces who attacked the compound.
"A poll published in Pakistan shows that 66% of people believe the man killed (at Abbottabad) was not Osama bin Laden" (Al-CIAda statement should kill off Bin Laden conspiracy theories) The CIA did have a safe house in Abbottabad. (CIA Occupied Safe House in Abbottabad)

"Gangster Dawood Ibrahim slipped out of Karachi ... on Monday evening, just hours after US Navy Seals (arrived) ... in Abbottabad."

"The gangster ... flew down to Islamabad and (was) then taken to a safe house in Murree by (his) ISI handlers." (
Dawood, Shakeel fled Karachi day after Osama kill)


Dawood Ibrahim
Dawood Ibrahim of the CIA?
Reportedly, Ibrahim has joint casino interests with the CIA in Katmandu.
Reportedly, this involves money laundering for top Indian politicians. (
Wayne Madsen sees Dawood Ibrahim link to Mumbai Attacks)

"The United States showed a 'lack of enthusiasm' in getting underworld don Dawood Ibrahim deported to India from Pakistan despite making some initial efforts, says senior BJP leader L K Advani.

"Advani, in his memoir 'My Country My Life', notes with deep disappointment America's reticence in pressing Pakistan to hand over Dawood, wanted in connection with 1993 Mumbai serial blasts, to India." - (
'US showed lack of interest in Dawood's deportation')
"Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai." (
Fears of a Mumbai Redux: The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat)

And it was an American agent, David Headley, who planned the Mumbai attacks. (
DAVID HEADLEY AND OSAMA BIN LADEN)
HEADLEY, LIKE DAWOOD IBRAHIM, LINKED TO 1993 BOMBINGS ...
The UK spooks protect Dawood Ibrahim?
(
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1411796,00.html)

Iqbal Mirchi
lives in Hornchurch, in England.

Iqbal Mirchi is wanted by police in India for murder and his part in a terrorist bombing campaign.

He is allegedly among the top 50 global drug barons; according to the US authorities he is the right-hand man of Dawood Ibrahim, head of the 'D' company, a worldwide mafia.

Bombs in Mumbai in 1993 killed over 300 people.

Mirchi's name was linked to the bombings.

According to Mirchi: 'a senior police officer told me that my name would be attached to false charges unless I paid millions of rupees in bribes.

'I refused and moved to Dubai.'

Mirchi admits having met Dawood Ibrahim in Dubai.

Dawood has been described as 'the most dangerous man in the world'.

As well as drugs and terrorism, the D company is involved in gold smuggling, gambling, counterfeit currency, diamond trading, contract killing, extortion and film financing.

It is said to have a 60 per cent stake in the Bollywood film industry.

Dawood is also known to have met Osama Bin Laden and, in the aftermath of 9/11, allowed his smuggling network to be used to enable senior al-Qaeda operatives to flee Afghanistan.
Dawood Ibrahim seems to be untouchable.
(
http://www.satribune.com/archives/apr4_10_04/P1_arun.htm

 

Thursday, May 19, 2011

China-risers should pause for breath...


 


China-risers should pause for breath...By Tom Engelhardt

Tired of Afghanistan and all those messy, oil-ish wars in the Greater Middle East that just don't seem to pan out? Count on one thing: part of the United States military feels just the way you do, especially a largely sidelined navy - and that's undoubtedly one of the reasons why, a few months back, the specter of China as this country's future enemy once again reared its ugly head.

Back before 9/11, China was the favored future uber-enemy of secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld and all those neo-cons who signed onto the Project for the New American Century and later staffed George W Bush's administration. After all, if you wanted to build a military beyond compare to enforce a long-term Pax Americana on the planet, you needed a nightmare enemy large
enough to justify all the advanced weapons systems in which you planned to invest.

As late as June 2005, neo-con journalist Robert Kaplan was still writing in the Atlantic about "How We Would Fight China", an article with this provocative subhead: "The Middle East is just a blip. The American military contest with China in the Pacific will define the twenty-first century. And China will be a more formidable adversary than Russia ever was." As everyone knows, however, that "blip" proved far too much for the Bush administration.

Finding itself hopelessly bogged down in two ground wars with rag-tag insurgency movements on either end of the Greater Middle Eastern "mainland", it let China-as-Monster-Enemy slip beneath the waves. In the process, the navy and, to some extent, the air force became adjunct services to the army (and the marines). In Iraq and Afghanistan, for instance, navy personnel far from any body of water found themselves driving trucks and staffing prisons.
It was the worst of times for the admirals, and probably not so great for the flyboys either, particularly after Secretary of Defense Robert Gates began pushing pilotless drones as the true force of the future. Naturally, a no-dogfight world in which the US military eternally engages enemies without significant air forces is a problematic basis for proposing future air force budgets.

There's no reason to be surprised then that, as the war in Iraq began to wind down in 2009-2010, the "Chinese naval threat" began to quietly reemerge. China was, after all, immensely economically successful and beginning to flex its muscles in local territorial waters.

The alarms sounded by military types or pundits associated with them grew stronger in the early months of 2011 (as did news of weapons systems being developed to deal with future Chinese air and sea power). "Beware America, time is running out!" warned retired air force lieutenant general and Fox News contributor Thomas G McInerney while describing China's first experimental stealth jet fighter.

Others focused on China's "string of pearls": a potential set of military bases in the Indian Ocean that might someday (particularly if you have a vivid imagination) give that country control of the oil lanes. Meanwhile, Kaplan, whose book about rivalries in that ocean came out in 2010, was back in the saddle, warning: "Now the United States faces a new challenge and potential threat from a rising China which seeks eventually to push the US military's area of operations back to Hawaii and exercise hegemony over the world's most rapidly growing economies." (Head of the US Pacific Command Admiral Robert Willard claimed that China had actually taken things down a notch at sea in the early months of 2011 - but only thanks to American strength.)

Behind the overheated warnings lay a deeper (if often unstated) calculation, shared by far more than budget-anxious military types and those who wrote about them: that the US was heading toward the status of late, great superpower and that, one of these years not so far down the line, China would challenge us for the number one spot on the seas - and on the planet.

The usefulness of a major enemy
You know the background here: the victor in the Cold War, the self-proclaimed "sole superpower" ready to accept no other nation or bloc of nations that might challenge it (ever), the towering land that was to be the Roman Empire, the British Empire, and the Vulcans rolled into one.

Well, those dreams are already in history's dustbin. If opinion polls are to be believed, a gloomy American populace now senses that the sun has set on American fantasies of ultimate dominance with what seems like record speed. These days, the US appears capable of doing little with its still staggering military might but fight Pashtun guerillas to a draw in distant Afghanistan and throw its air power and missile-armed drones at another fifth-rate power in a "humanitarian" gesture with the usual destruction and predictable non-results.

Toss in the obvious - rotting infrastructure, fiscal gridlock in Washington, high unemployment, cutbacks in crucial local services, and a general mood of paralysis, depression, and confusion - and even if the Chinese are only refurbishing a mothballed 1992 Ukrainian aircraft carrier as their first move into the imperial big time, is it really so illogical to imagine them as the next "sole superpower" on planet Earth?

After all, China passed Japan in 2010 as the globe's number two economy, the same year it officially leaped over the United States to become the world's number one emitter of greenhouse gases. Its growth rate came in at something close to 10% right through the great financial meltdown of 2008, making it the world's fastest expanding major economy.

By mid-2010, it had 477,000 millionaires and 64 billionaires (second only to the US), and what's always being touted as a burgeoning middle class with an urge for the better things. It also had the world's largest car market (the US came in second), and the staggering traffic jams to prove it, not to speak of a willingness to start threatening neighbors over control of the seas. In short, all the signs of classic future imperial success.

And those around the US military aren't alone in sounding the alarm. Just this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) quietly posted a report at its website indicating that by 2016, the "age of America" would be over and, by one measure at least, the Chinese economy would take over first place from the American one.

With growing fears in the military-industrial complex of future cuts in the Pentagon budget (even though, as of now, it's still rising), there will undoubtedly be increased jockeying among the armed services for slices of the military pie. This means an increasing need for the sort of enemies and looming challenges that would justify the weapons systems and force levels each service so desperately wants.

And there's nothing like having a rising power of impressive proportions sink some money into its military (even if the sums are still embarrassingly small compared to the United States). In the Chinese case, it also helps when that country uses its control over rare earth metals to threaten Japan in a dispute over territorial waters in the East China Sea, begins to muscle neighbors on the high seas, and - so rumor has it - is preparing to name its refurbished aircraft carrier, which might be launched this summer, after the Qing Dynasty admiral who conquered the island of Taiwan.

The unpredictability of China
Still, for all those naval and air power types who would like to remove American power from a quicksand planet and put it offshore, for those who would like to return to an age of superpower enmity, in fact, for all those pundits and analysts of whatever stripe picking China as the globe's next superstar or super evildoer, I have a small suggestion: take a deep breath. Then take this under advisement: we've already been through a version of this once. Might it not be worth approaching that number-one prediction with more humility the second time around?

As a start, let's take a stroll down memory lane. Back in 1979, Ezra Vogel, Harvard professor and Asian specialist, put out a book that was distinctly ahead of its time in capturing the rise to wealth and glory of a new global power. He entitled it Japan as Number One: Lessons for America, and in praising the ways Japanese industry operated and the resulting "Japanese miracle," the title lacked only an exclamation point. Vogel certainly caught the temper of the times, and his scholarly analysis was followed, in the 1980s, by a flood of ever more shrill articles and books predicting (in fascination or horror) that this would indeed someday be a Japanese world.

The only problem, as we now know: 'tweren't so. The Japanese economic bubble burst around 1990 and a "lost decade" followed, which never quite ended. Then, of course, there was the 2011 earthquake-cum-tsunami-cum-nuclear-disaster that further crippled the country. 

 

So how about China as Number One: Lessons for America? After all, its economy is threatening to leave Japan in the dust; if you were one of its neighbors, you might indeed be fretting about your offshore claims to the mineral wealth under various local seas; and everyone knows that Shanghai is now Blade Runner without the noir, just 40-story towers as far as the eye can see. So what could go wrong?

As a specialty line, our intelligence services offer new administrations predictions on the world to come by projecting present trends relatively seamlessly into a reasonably similar future. And why shouldn't that be a logical way to proceed? So if you project Chinese growth rates into the future, as the IMF has
 
just done, you end up with a monster of success (and assumedly a military with a global reach). It's not that hard, in other words, to end up with the US Navy's nightmare enemy.

But so much on our present planet suggests that we're not in a world of steady, evolutionary development but of "punctuated equilibrium", of sudden leaps and discontinuous change. Imagine then another perfectly logical scenario: What if, like Japan, China hits some major speed bumps on the highway to number one?

As you think about that, keep something else in mind. China's story over the last century-plus already represents one of the great discontinuous bursts of energy of our modern moment. To predict most of the twists and turns along the way would have been next to impossible.

In 1972, in the wake of the Cultural Revolution that Mao Zedong had set in motion six years earlier, to take but one example, no intelligence service, no set of seers, no American would have predicted today's China or, for that matter, a three-and-a-half-decade burst of Communist Party-controlled capitalist industrial expansionism. The pundit who offered such a prediction then would have been drummed out of the corps of analysts.

No one at the time could have imagined that the giant, independent but impoverished communist land would become the expansive number two capitalist economy of today. In fact, from the turn of the previous century when China was the basket case of Asia and a combined Japanese/Western force marched on Beijing, when various great powers took parts of the country as their own property or "concessions," followed by ensuing waves of warlordism, nationalism, revolutionary ferment, war with Japan, civil war, and finally the triumph of a communist regime that united the country, the essence of China's story has been unpredictability.

So what confidence should we now have in projections about China that assume more of the same, especially since, looking toward the future, that country seems like something of a one-trick pony? After all, the ruling Communist Party threw the dice definitively for state capitalism and untrammeled growth decades ago and now sits atop a potential volcano. As the country's leaders undoubtedly know, only one thing may keep the present system safely in place: ever more growth.

The minute China's economy falters, the minute some bubble bursts, whether through an overheating economy or for other reasons, the country's rulers have a problem on their hands that could potentially make the Arab Spring look mild by comparison. What many here call its growing "middle class" remains anything but and there are literally hundreds of millions of forgotten peasants and migrant workers who have found the Chinese success story less than a joy.

A revolutionary tradition for the ages
It might take only a significant economic downturn, a period that offered little promise to Chinese workers and consumers, to unsettle that country in major ways. After all, despite its striking growth rates, it remains in some fashion a poor land. And one more factor should be taken into consideration that few of our seers ever consider. It's no exaggeration to say that China has a revolutionary tradition unlike that of any other nation or even region on the planet.

Since at least the time of the Yellow Turban Rebellion in 184 CE, led by three brothers associated with a Taoist sect, the country has repeatedly experienced millenarian peasant movements bursting out of its interior with ferocious energy. There is no other record like it. The last of these was undoubtedly Mao Zedong's communist revolution.

Others would certainly include the peasant uprising at the end of the Ming Dynasty in the 17th century and, around the time of the American Civil War, the Taiping Rebellion. It was led by a man we would today call a cultist who had created a syncretic mix of Chinese religions and Christianity (and who considered himself the younger brother of Jesus Christ). Before Qing Dynasty forces finally suppressed it and a series of other rebellions, an estimated 20 million people died.

When Chinese leaders banned and then tried to stamp out the fast-spreading Falun Gong movement, they were not - as reported here - simply "repressing religion"; they were suppressing what they undoubtedly feared could be the next Taiping Rebellion. Even if few intelligence analysts in the West are thinking about any of this, rest assured that the Communist rulers of China know their own history. That's one reason why they have been so quick to crack down on any Arab-Spring-like demonstrations.

In addition, though I'm no economist, when I look around this planet I continue to wonder (as the Chinese must) about the limits of growth for all of us, but certainly for a vast country desperate for energy and other raw materials, with an aging population, and an environment already heavily polluted by the last 40 years of unchecked industrial expansion.

There is no question that China has invested in its military, put together a powerful (if largely defensive) navy, elbowed its neighbors on questions of control of undersea mineral rights, and gone on a global search to lock up future energy resources and key raw materials.

Nonetheless, if predictions were to be made and trends projected into the future, it might be far more reasonable to predict a cautious Chinese government, focused on keeping its populace under control and solving confounding domestic problems than an expansively imperial one. It's almost inconceivable that, in the future, China could or would ever play the role the US played in 1945 as the British Empire went down. It's hard even to imagine China as another Soviet Union in a great global struggle with the United States.

And speaking of the conjunctures of history, here's another thought for the US Navy: What if this isn't an imperial planet any more? What if, from resource scarcity to global warming, humanity is nudging up against previously unimagined limits on unbridled growth? From at least the 17th century on, successive great powers have struggled over the control of vast realms of a globe in which expansion seemed eternally the name of the game. For centuries, one or more great powers were always on hand when the previous great imperial power or set of powers faltered.

In the wake of World War II, with the collapse of the Japanese and German empires, only two powers worthy of the name were left, each so mighty that together they would be called "superpowers". After 1991, only one remained, so seemingly powerful that it was sometimes termed a "hyperpower" and many believed it had inherited the Earth.

What if, in fact, the US was indeed the last empire? What if a world of rivalries, on a planet heading into resource scarcity, turned out to be less than imperial in nature? Or what if - and think of me as a devil's advocate here - this turned out not to be an imperial world of bitter rivalries at all, but in the face of unexpectedly tough times, a partnership planet?

Unlikely? Sure, but who knows? That's the great charm of the future. In any case, just to be safe, you might not want to start preparing for the Chinese century quite so fast or bet your bottom dollar on China as number one. Not just yet anyway.
 

China's J-20 fighter prototype, if its stealth and supersonic cruise capabilities are fully developed, would qualify as a "game changer" in the Asia-Pacific region; in practical terms, this would mean the "block obsolescence" of most Asian air defense systems. The strategic choices available to the United States and its allies for dealing with the J-20 are very limited.
- Carlo Kopp